[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 210604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

A 1015 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N57W. A SURFACE TROUGH
IS ALONG 29N55W...THROUGH THE 1015 MB LOW CENTER...TO 26N60W AND
25N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO
28N BETWEEN 53W AND 57W. SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 26N
BETWEEN 52W AND 54W. THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT
ACCOMPANIES THIS FEATURE HAS INCREASED AND IT HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. THIS LOW CENTER HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME A SHORT-LIVED TROPICAL CYCLONE LATER TODAY
OR TUESDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD...AND THEN TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 14N35W 8N35W 4N34W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
4N TO 14N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. PART OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
RELATED TO THE ITCZ ALSO.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N67W 15N68W 10N69W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IT IS
NOT EASY TO FIND PRECIPITATION THAT ONLY IS RELATED TO THE
TROPICAL WAVE. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W
TO 10N21W TO 5N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N24W TO 3N28W 7N40W
8N48W AND 8N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 51W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 22N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE MONA PASSAGE...TO 14N70W IN THE CARIBBEAN
SEA. A TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO
27N64W AND 29N62W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 58W AND 66W. EARLIER ISOLATED MODERATE
THAT WAS ACROSS THE AREA ALREADY HAS DISSIPATED.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...
WILL COVER THE AREA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE FIRST 24
HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AN INVERTED TROUGH AND/OR CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW FROM AN INVERTED TROUGH...WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE
REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECASTS FOR 500
MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOW THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF A TROUGH FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR MORE OF THE 48 HOUR
FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONIC CENTER THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHERN/NORTHWESTERN
SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND
INCLUDING IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE
WEST OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 22N66W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...COVERS THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE SOUTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 70W...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF 28N83W 25N88W 22N89W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N75W...TO FLORIDA NEAR
29N82W...TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N90W. A WARM FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 25N90W TO 22N97W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...IN
MEXICO AND THE GULF WATERS FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 91W AND 93W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N82W 26N90W 21N92W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KMZG...
KBBF...KGUL...KGBK...KMDJ...AND KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 36-
HOUR FORECAST COLD FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWESTERN SECTION ALONG
30N91W 27N96W 23N98W. EXPECT NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF THE
FRONT.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
21/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN...IS 0.34 IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N73W IN COLOMBIA...10N78W...THROUGH
WESTERN PANAMA AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND 9N85W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W
ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF LAKE MARACAIBO AND 76W. SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 11N TO 12N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 79W...AND
BETWEEN 79W AND 80W WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 14N. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N17W TO 25N18W...18N27W 15N38W AND 13N43W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 36W AND 41W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W TO 27N22W...TO A 1021 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N32W...TO A 1022 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N46W...BEYOND 32N50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 12 HOUR FORECAST...OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 41W AND 51W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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