[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 16N29W TO
7N33W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE 700 MB
PRESSURE FIELD. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N
BETWEEN 27W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE E CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 17N65W TO 9N66W
MOVING W-NW 15 KT. WAVE IS WELL DEFINED IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN 60W-
67W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 6N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES
ALONG 6N32W 8N40W 6N55W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH
THE TROPICAL WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-
7N BETWEEN 19W-24W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N
BETWEEN 32W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL
FLORIDA TO THE E GULF OF MEXICO AT 26N86W. A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO 24N94W. A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE AT 19N96W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE W
GULF FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 95W-97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN
120 NM N OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONTS. 10-15 NE WINDS ARE N OF
THE FRONTS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 29N. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
HAS SW FLOW UPPER LEVEL FLOW DUE TO A RIDGE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS
FOR THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT TO MOVE BACK N TO NEAR CORPUS
CHRISTIE TEXAS WITH CONVECTION. THE OTHER END OF THE FRONT WILL
REMAIN OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE
W GULF ON TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. SEE ABOVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF JAMAICA FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 73W-80W. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR
8N75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO COSTA RICA AT
10N85W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA... AND COSTA RICA
S OF 14N BETWEEN 77W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 20N89W WITH
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW
IS CENTERED S OF JAMAICA NEAR 16N78W. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N BETWEEN 60W-70W. EXPECT
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA.

HISPANIOLA...

FAIR WEATHER IS PRESENTLY NOTED OVER HISPANIOLA. STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IS ALSO OVER THE ISLAND. DAYTIME HEATING COULD
PRODUCE AFTERNOON SHOWERS AT MOST TODAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N78W TO CAPE
CANAVERAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE
FRONT. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXTENDS FRON 32N70W TO
29N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THIS FRONT. A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 30N53W TO
23N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-29N BETWEEN
50W-57W. A 1022 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
NEAR 29N40W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED N OF PUERTO RICO NEAR 24N64W. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE E OF THE LOW IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION FROM 23N-29N
BETWEEN 50W-57W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR A NEW SURFACE LOW TO
FORM OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N58W WITH CONVECTION.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA


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