[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181144
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDS FROM 21N15W TO
8N19W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF
MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-14N W OF THE WAVE TO 20W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 14N47W TO 7N52W MOVING W-NW 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 46W-
54W.

TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES EXTENDS FROM 15N59W TO
INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 8N60W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 8N-12N
BETWEEN 56W AND THE WAVE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO E OF THE NEWLY ADDED
TROPICAL WAVE. THE ITCZ BEGINS W OF THE WAVE NEAR 11N20W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 9N36W TO 11N48W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 21W-32W AND
FROM 6N-14N BETWEEN 34W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE NE CONUS IS SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE E OF
PANAMA CITY AND CONTINUES TO 28N88W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY
ALONG 25N94W TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR VERACRUZ. ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
AND MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS
ANCHORED OVER W CUBA NEAR 23N83W. A SEABREEZE INDUCED SURFACE
TROUGH IS ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE S
OF 26N TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 82W-84W INCLUDING THE LOWER
FLORIDA KEYS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES THIS MORNING. THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY. A SECOND STRONGER FRONT
MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL PUSH OFF THE TEXAS COAST
SAT. A THIRD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE N GULF LATE MON INTO TUE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN
NW OF LINE FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO GUATEMALA NEAR 16N89W.
AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED INLAND OVER NICARAGUA COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS ACROSS THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF
74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 64W-75W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE SE CARIBBEAN S OF 14N
W OF 80W AND ANCHORED INLAND OVER VENEZUELA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N BETWEEN 65W-
75W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ACROSS
PANAMA NEAR 9N80W TO OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 10N E OF 78W AND S OF 12N W
OF 78W. WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH TUE. TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY AND THEN
THROUGH THE NE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SAT. A SECOND TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EARLY SUN THEN
ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON AND INTO THE S/CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFFSHORE
WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. THE UPPER
TROUGH IS SHIFTING E GIVING THE ISLAND A MORE NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT. THE TROPICAL WAVE E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WILL CLIP THE
ISLAND ON SAT NIGHT INTO SUN BEFORE IT DISSIPATES INCREASING THE
CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
DAYTIME HEATING PRODUCING AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 70W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W
ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 29N63W ACROSS HISPANIOLA/
PUERTO RICO INTO THE NE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 29N69W ALONG 24N72W ACROSS THE TURKS AND
CAICOS TO THE COAST OF HAITI NEAR 20N73W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 57W-64W
AND FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM 21N-
26N BETWEEN 68W-73W. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY N PORTION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 25N48W TO 19N50W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-25N BETWEEN 43W-48W AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A WEAK
1018 MB HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 30N57W. A LINGERING
COLD FRONT IS IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC ENTERING THE REGION NEAR
32N20W ALONG 28N25W TO 26N31W WHERE IT BECOMES A DISSIPATING
STATIONARY FRONT TO 26N43W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 30N AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE COLD
FRONT. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUN. THE
GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST
EARLY SUN THEN STALL AND BECOME DIFFUSE MON. A SECOND COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE OFF THE NE FLORIDA COAST TUE NIGHT.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE
VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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