[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 152335
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 17N43W TO 13N46W TO
8N48W MOVING W AT 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 18N85W TO 10N85W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N
BETWEEN 82W-86W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-
BISSAU AT 12N16W TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N20W TO
7N30W TO 7N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-10N
BETWEEN 23W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A COLD FRONT IS OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVING
SE. THE BASE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM N ALABAMA TO THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS OVER
THE N GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE GULF IS PRESENTLY VOID OF
PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO
REACH THE TEXAS COAST WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN  AND CENTRAL AMERICA
WITH CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. A RELATIVELY LAX SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA... HISPANIOLA...AND
PUERTO RICO.  A MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 7N75W
TO BEYOND COSTA RICA AT 10N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... NE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W CUBA AND THE NW
CARIBBEAN. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW FLOW. CONSIDERABLE
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 77W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR
THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W OVER CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA
MOSTLY DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXTENDS FROM THE N BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA
ALONG 27N77W 22N78W SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE BAHAMAS. A
WEST ATLANTIC 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 32N73W. A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 29N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 23N72W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS N FROM
THE LOW TO 28N70W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N-25N
BETWEEN 66W-76W. A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
EXTENDS FROM 30N35W TO 29N40W TO 28N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHINH 90 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 56W. A 1022 MB
HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N21W WITH FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE LESSER
ANTILLES FROM 21N53W TO 12N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90
NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FURTHER
E FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 48W-53W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-80W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE STATIONARY FRONT. A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS ALSO CENTERED E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N57W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION FROM FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 48W-53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net