[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 142347
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N38W TO 7N43W
MOVING W AT 10-15 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN
90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N79W TO 10N81W
MOVING W AT 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 11N-17N BETWEEN 76W-85W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA TO 12N16W AND ENDS JUST
OFF THE COAST AT 11N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 11N17W TO 6N26W
TO 6N33W TO 10N36W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-7N
BETWEEN 19W-30W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BASE OF A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING 10-15 KT EASTERLY WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE GULF IS PRESENTLY VOID OF PRECIPITATION. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER NE MEXICO NEAR
23N100W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER THE N GULF N OF 27N.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS S OF 27N. EXPECT A COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
TEXAS COAST AND MOVE INTO THE GULF ON WED WITH CONVECTION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WITH SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. SEE ABOVE. 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...JAMAICA...
HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ALSO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA. A
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N COLOMBIA AT 8N75W TO BEYOND COSTA
RICA AT 9N84W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND
COSTA RICA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER GUATEMALA NEAR 15N92W ENHANCING CONVECTION AND
MOVING W. NE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER W
CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN...EXCEPT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N W
OF 80W.  EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
MOVE W WITH CONVECTION. ALSO EXPECT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH
NORTHERLY FLOW TO COVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 80W... AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO DIP DOWN FROM THE W ATLANTIC AND BE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA MOSTLY
DUE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE. EXPECT SIMILAR CONVECTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 26N68W TO THE S
BAHAMAS AT 22N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM
OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 32N44W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO 30N45W TO
26N60W...AND DISSIPATES TO 27N66W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHINH 90 NM S OF THE FRONT E OF 51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 62W-66W.
A 1023 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N15W WITH
FAIR WEATHER. IN THE TROPICS...A SURFACE TROUGH IS E OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES FROM 17N51W TO 11N56W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 70W-80W.
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE
CONVECTION FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 62W-66W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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