[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131715
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN OCT 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1700TC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N70W ACROSS THE CENTRAL DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO NEAR 13N72W...MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE WAVE IS
POSITIONED BELOW AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.
MINIMAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS POSITIONED OVER THE ATLANTIC ALONG 32W/33W
FROM 05N TO 15N AND IS MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1012 MB LOW IS
ATTACHED TO THE WAVE AT 11N33W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE
OF THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W TO
06N13W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
06N13W TO 06N20W TO THE 1012 MB LOW MENTIONED ABOVE NEAR 11N33W
TO 08N40W TO 10N46W...THEN RESUMES NEAR 08N52W TO 06N58W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED OFF THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM 05N TO 11N BETWEEN 17W AND 22W...AND WITHIN 2
TO 3 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16N40W TO 13N50W TO
12N62W. THE SECOND AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 1010
MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 13N47W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM
17N43W THROUGH THE LOW CENTER TO 09N52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

A STRONG MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
POSITIONED OVER E MEXICO NEAR 24N100W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT
COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF. THE CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO MOVE E
INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. NORTHERLY WINDS
ALOFT ARE STRONGEST OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE
A 1020 MB HIGH IS LOCATED OVER SE LOUISIANA WITH WEAK RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD AND COVERING MOST OF THE GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS CENTERED JUST OFF THE E COAST OF HONDURAS
NEAR 17N83W AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE W AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN.
RIDGING ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA. FLOW ALOFT OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS NORTHERLY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A TROF OVER
THE ATLANTIC. NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOCATED OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN S OF 13.5N W OF 74.5W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NW OVER THE AREA E OF 66W.

HISPANIOLA...

FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ISLAND IS ANTICYCLONIC. CLOUDS ARE
INCREASING OVER HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC DUE TO STRONG
AFTERNOON DAYTIME HEATING WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH THE AXIS LOCATED THROUGH 32N73W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
NEAR 23N78W. A JET IS LOCATED ON THE E SIDE OF THE TROUGH AND
EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF CUBA AT 79W TO 25N73W TO BEYOND
32N67W. SATELLITE CLOUD DRIFT WINDS INDICATE SPEEDS OF UP TO 60
KT ALONG THE JET AXIS. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH IS LOCATED
THROUGH 32N64W TO 22N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED ALONG AND UP TO 1-2 DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. MOVING DOWNSTREAM A MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 24N57W WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
NE TO 32N32W. A SHARP AND ELONGATED MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR 30N20W TO 22N40W TO 16N62W. A JET IS
LOCATED ON THE S SIDE OF THE TROUGH FROM 15N60W TO 22N40W TO
BEYOND 26N20W AND IS STRONGEST E OF 35W. AT THE SURFACE A RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDS THROUGH 32N20W TO 25N40W TO 25N65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
CAB


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