[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 12N42W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STEADILY
BECOMING UNFAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING LESS LIKELY.
THIS LOW HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
08N-14N BETWEEN 35W-47W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN E CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N63W 14N63W MOVING W AT
15 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE WAVE
AXIS OVER THE TROPICAL W ATLANTIC FROM 12N-20N BETWEEN 55W-59W
DUE TO SPEED CONVERGENCE.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL
AT 15N17W TO A 1012 MB LOW AT 7N29W TO 7N34W TO A 1007 MB LOW AT
12N42W TO 8N49W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
7N-12N BETWEEN 23W-31W...AND FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 30W-35W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W.  10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS ARE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS
OVER THE NW GULF AND E TEXAS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 20N105W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PERSIST. ALSO
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE NW GULF AND TEXAS DUE TO SURFACE
RETURN FLOW.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
BETWEEN 70W-80W TO INCLUDE JAMAICA...E CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF
13N BETWEEN 75W-84W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 86W. A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N78W. THIS LOW IS
ENHANCING THE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W AND THE AREA OF CONVECTION TO ADVECT
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN DUE TO SPEED ADVECTION.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE ENHANCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW CENTER IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. EXPECT LITTLE
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N69W TO E OF
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 26N73W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES S FROM
26N73W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 68W-73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE FRONT AND TROUGH. THE TAIL END OF
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC FROM 31N28W TO 29N33W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A 1023 MB HIGH
IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N16W. OF NOTE IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC
BETWEEN 70W-80W ENHANCING SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED NEAR 20N61W ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS AND LOCATED NEAR A
TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA


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