[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 12N36W. SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AT 10-15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 7N-15N BETWEEN 32W-40W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N54W 17N56W 11N56W
MOVING W AT 15 KNOTS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 18N80W 10N81W MOVING
W AT 10-15 KNOTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL
AT 13N17W TO 9N21W TO 10N30W TO THE 1008 MB LOW AT 12N36W TO
8N46W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N46W TO NEAR TRINIDAD AT 10N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE SPECIAL FEATURES
ABOVE...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 23W-
28W...AND FROM 9N-13N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

AS OF 1500 UTC...A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES TO ALABAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY 10-15 KT
WINDS. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA E OF 83W...AND ELSEWHERE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF TEXAS S OF 28W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS FAIR
WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N102W PRODUCING NORTHERLY UPPER
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING TO PERSIST. ALSO
EXPECT MORE SHOWERS OVER THE W GULF W OF 95W DUE TO SURFACE
RETURN FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. SEE ABOVE.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA AND HISPANIOLA.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 65W-80W TO INCLUDE JAMAICA...E CUBA...
HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N
COLOMBIA AT 8N77W TO COSTA RICA AT 10N86W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE TROUGH. IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 84W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 17N80W. THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA E OF 80W.
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE W
AND VERY LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

HISPANIOLA...

A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WINDWARD PASSAGE FROM 22N72W TO
18N75W ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTER IS ALSO ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS.
EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N70W TO TO THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS AT 25N76W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
WITHON 120 NM OF THE FRONT. A COLD FRONT HAS DIPPED INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N34W 30N40W 31N47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER E
FROM 31N25W TO 27N29W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
TROUGH. A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 34N20W. OF
NOTE IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC BETWEEN 70W-80W ENHANCING SHOWERS. AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 19N56W ENHANCING MORE SHOWERS AND LOCATED
ABOVE A TROPICAL WAVE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA

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