[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110603
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N34W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 13N
BETWEEN 32W AND 43W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS
CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF
THIS SYSTEM STILL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE
UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE DURING THIS
WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N51W 17N52W 12N53W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W AND
54W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N68W...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN WEAKENING IN ITS SATELLITE
IMAGERY REPRESENTATION AS COMPARED TO THE IMAGERY OF 24 HOURS
AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
75W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1013 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 5N18W...TO 7N25W 11N30W...TO THE 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N34W...TO 9N40W AND 9N44W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N44W TO 9N48W AND 10N51W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 15W AND
17W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN
21W AND 28W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF FLORIDA...ACROSS
WESTERN CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...EVENTUALLY TO 13N81W IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY... COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 94W. A SURFACE RIDGE
PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 28N87W THROUGH
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 32N71W TO 27N74W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM
27N74W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO CUBA NEAR 22N82W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N76W 17N80W 14N84W.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N68W...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH HAS BEEN
WEAKENING IN ITS SATELLITE IMAGERY REPRESENTATION AS COMPARED TO
THE IMAGERY OF 24 HOURS AGO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO
THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL
SPAN THE ISLAND FOR THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND FOR THE LAST 18 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR
THE REST OF THE TIME. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 500 MB STARTS WITH
HISPANIOLA BEING IN THE MIDDLE OF A RIDGE THAT IS TO THE NORTH
OF THE AREA AND AN INVERTED TROUGH THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A RIDGE EVENTUALLY RETURNS AND
LASTS FOR THE REST OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS
FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED
TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
DIFFERENT TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS AFTER THAT. THE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE FROM 80W EASTWARD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR
LAKE MARACAIBO...TO 9N78W IN PANAMA...ACROSS PANAMA INTO
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN LAKE
MARACAIBO AND 75W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N75W IN
COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST AND
80W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 70W AND 74W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO
27N37W TO 22N41W...TO A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 20N47W. THE CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR THE
51W/53W TROPICAL WAVE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 48W AND 54W. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N24W TO 31N25W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N25W TO
29N27W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 24N45W 25N40W 26N32W BEYOND 32N23W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE
TROPICAL CYCLONE...NEAR 11N34W. EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 12N TO 17N TO THE
EAST OF 39W. A SECOND AREA OF INTEREST CONSISTS OF WINDS 20
KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 17N TO THE
EAST OF 53W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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