[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 101137
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU OCT 10 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N29W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 29W AND
34W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO
14N BETWEEN 28W AND 38W. THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM
HAS NOT IMPROVED...EVEN THOUGH ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE
NEXT DAY OR TWO BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE LOW CENTER IS FORECAST TO MOVE
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W TO THE SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SOME OF
THIS PRECIPITATION THAT IS CLOSE TO THIS WAVE ALSO MAY BE
RELATED TO THE 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N29W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N48W 16N47W 12N45W...
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THIS POSITION AGREES WITH
LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA OF THE SAME MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS
IN THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA ON ALL SIDES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N
TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 76W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG BETWEEN 80W AND NICARAGUA IN ITS COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED
MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GAMBIA
AND SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL...TO 12N23W...TO THE 1009 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 11N29W...TO 8N35W AND 8N40W. THE
ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N40W TO 8N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 2N TO 10N
BETWEEN 13W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 12N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...WESTERN CUBA...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A. AND ADJACENT ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS...THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...TO WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. COMPARATIVELY
DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN BUILDING INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO...COVERING THE NORTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE
TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N74W...TO THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AND
IT CONTINUES FROM THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO THE FLORIDA
STRAITS...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N74W 26N77W 22N80W 19N86W
16N89W...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N TO THE WEST OF 90W SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IN MEXICO BETWEEN THE GUATEMALA BORDER AND
94W.

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LINE OF CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS. THE
BAND IS ALONG 30N89W 27N88W 25N86W 23N84W 23N82W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KMZG...KBBF...KBQX...KVBS...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...
KEHC...KGBK...KDLP...KMDJ...AND KIPN. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAINS. BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER PARTS OF THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA...MOSTLY AROUND THE NORTHERN SECTIONS. THE
VISIBILITY IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR HAS BEEN AT OR LOWER THAN 3
MILES WITH FOG FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. THE VISIBILITY IN
PATTERSON LOUISIANA...IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA...HAS
BEEN LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG FOR THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS.
LOW CLOUD CEILINGS...AND FOG STARTING TO FORM...COVER THE AREAS
THAT ARE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS OF MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA. THE VISIBILITY AT
PERRY FLORIDA HAS BEEN LESS THAN ONE MILE AT TIMES...RANGING
FROM 7 TO 10 MILES AT OTHER TIMES...AND THEN LESS THAN 2 TO 3
MILES AT STILL OTHER TIMES...DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF TODAY. THE VISIBILITY IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION WHITING FIELD HAS BEEN 1 MILE WITH FOG
AND LOWER...AND AT CRESTVIEW 3 MILES WITH FOG AND LOWER.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
INCLUDING ACROSS HISPANIOLA...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W TO THE SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS. THIS TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA OF THE SAME MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT WAS IN THE AREA 24 HOURS AGO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS
HISPANIOLA...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SURROUNDS HISPANIOLA ON ALL SIDES. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE FROM THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 17N
TO 28N BETWEEN 63W AND 72W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC
WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA...WITH A SERIES OF SEPARATE EAST-
TO-WEST ORIENTED RIDGES. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE
AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. HISPANIOLA
WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A DIFFERENT TROUGH FOR THE NEXT
24 HOURS AFTER THAT. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM 80W
EASTWARD.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-HISPANIOLA TROUGH. AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 29N61W 22N63W 16N64W 13N65W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO
9N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF COLOMBIA FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W...AND IN LAKE MARACAIBO OF VENEZUELA.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 77W AND
LAND MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE HISPANIOLA-TO-SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 70W AND 73W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A TROUGH
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 32N BETWEEN 20W AND
40W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N27W
TO 31N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N29W TO 29N34W
28N40W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 32N23W
29N30W 27N40W 27N50W 32N53W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CUT-OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 19N47W. THE CYCLONIC CENTER HAS BEEN DRIFTING
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DURING THE LAST 24 HOURS. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM
12N TO 25N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N TO 26N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET
TO THE NORTH OF 23N TO THE EAST OF 52W. THE 12-HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
CYCLONE...NEAR 11N34W. EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25
KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N
TO THE EAST OF 38W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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