[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT42 KNHC 060831
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
400 AM CDT SUN OCT 06 2013

THE CENTER OF KAREN IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGES...AND PRACTICALLY ALL OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED WELL TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SURFACE
SYNOPTIC DATA INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 25
KT.  GIVEN THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT AN EVEN MORE HOSTILE
ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT SOON...WITH A VERY LARGE UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE AREA AND BRINGING EVEN STRONGER SHEAR AND
DRIER AIR...KAREN SHOULD DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 12 HOURS OR
SO.  THE CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM AND
DISSIPATE IN 36-48 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

IT APPEARS THAT THE SYSTEM HAS BEGUN TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 045/2.  KAREN
OR ITS REMNANT SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST WITH AN
INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS IT MOVES TO THE SOUTH OF A MID-LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  06/0900Z 28.3N  91.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  06/1800Z 29.0N  90.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  07/0600Z 29.8N  87.6W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  07/1800Z 30.4N  85.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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