[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 052039
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM KAREN DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
400 PM CDT SAT OCT 05 2013

KAREN HAS NOT GOTTEN ANY BETTER ORGANIZED THIS AFTERNOON...AS DRY
AIR AND SHEAR CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE CYCLONE. WHILE SOME CONVECTION
RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER FOR A TIME...THE CENTER HAS ACTUALLY
BECOME LESS DEFINED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. HOWEVER...THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
FOUND A VERY SMALL AREA OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ON THE SFMR
NORTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER...SO KAREN IS MAINTAINED AS A
TROPICAL STORM FOR NOW. DATA FROM THE AIRCRAFT SUGGEST THAT THE
CIRCULATION ALOFT IS SLOWLY SPINNING DOWN...WITH PEAK 850-MB
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ONLY 32 KT. UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN KAREN LOSING STRENGTH DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE NHC FORECAST SHOWS WEAKENING TO TROPICAL
DEPRESSION STATUS IN 24 HOURS. AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR INCREASES...
REMNANT LOW STATUS IN EXPECTED IN 36-48 HOURS...AND KAREN IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY THEREAFTER. IF THE CENTER OF KAREN
LOSES DEFINITION...THE CYCLONE COULD DISSIPATE EARLIER.

THE MOTION OF KAREN CONTINUES TO BE IRREGULAR. AFTER MOVING NEAR
10 KT EARLY THIS MORNING...THE CYCLONE STALLED THIS AFTERNOON AS
CONVECTION RE-DEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER. THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE
TRENDED TOWARD THE ECMWF THIS CYCLE...WITH THESE MODELS ALL SHOWING
KAREN TURNING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND THEN TOWARD THE EAST AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE NEW NHC TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
SOUTHWARD TOWARD THESE MODELS AND SHOWS A TRACK NEAR OR OVER
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND THEN JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST THROUGH DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 28.1N  91.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 28.6N  91.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 29.3N  89.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  07/0600Z 29.6N  87.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  07/1800Z 29.7N  84.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  08/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN



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