[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 050940
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...KAREN MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...OR 4 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.1N...LONGITUDE 91.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT
480 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 400 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NORTH
NORTHWEST AT 8 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 40 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS MORNING BEFORE TURNING TO THE NORTHEAST LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT. ON SUCH A COURSE...THE STORM WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO
HAVE A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE OR
COASTAL ALABAMA LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED FROM SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

KAREN REMAINS VERY DISORGANIZED AND IS A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM.
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE INTENSITY
THROUGH LANDFALL.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FLZ108-112-114-051745-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013 /440 AM CDT SAT OCT 5 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE AS SOON AS POSSIBLE...BEFORE
CONDITIONS DETERIORATE. KEEP INFORMED WHILE LISTENING FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SECURE LOOSE OUTDOOR OBJECTS WHICH CAN BE BLOWN AROUND.

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A DECREASE SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST MAY
INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS OF AROUND
35 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 1 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

...INLAND FLOODING...
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
MINOR FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 3 TO 5 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY AS
KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ115-118-127-128-134-051745-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-
COASTAL DIXIE-
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN
APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST COAST. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND
LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR
WARNINGS BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE
IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE
COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET. THIS
TRANSLATES TO 1 TO 3 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF
APALACHEE BAY IN WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND NORTHERN TAYLOR
COUNTIES.

$$

GMZ750-770-051745-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
540 AM EDT SAT OCT 5 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS LESS
THAN 25 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A DECREASE SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST
FORECAST SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...MAINLY TO THE WEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS.

SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH 5 TO 8 FEET BY SUNDAY AS KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO
THE AREA.

...WATERSPOUTS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY.

$$








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