[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KTAE 042159
HLSTAE

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN DISORGANIZED AND MOVING SLOWLY OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO...MAY RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NO CHANGES TO WATCHES AT THIS TIME.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
AND BIG BEND.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
SOUTH WALTON...COASTAL BAY AND COASTAL GULF COUNTIES.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO
APALACHICOLA OUT TO 60 NM.

ALTHOUGH WATCHES ARE NOT IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL AREAS IN THE
FLORIDA BIG BEND AROUND APALACHEE BAY...THERE IS STILL CONCERN
ABOUT RELATED HAZARDS IN THOSE AREAS...PARTICULARLY RELATED TO
STORM SURGE FLOODING.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...OR 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.9N...LONGITUDE 90.3W. THIS WAS ABOUT
480 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TALLAHASSEE FL...OR ABOUT 410 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PANAMA CITY FL. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 335 DEGREES
AT 7 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 50 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM KAREN WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE IN A GENERAL NORTHERLY
DIRECTION TODAY AND INTO SATURDAY. THE STORM IS LIKELY TO TAKE A
TURN TO THE NORTHEAST OR EAST-NORTHEAST LATER ON SATURDAY. ON SUCH
A COURSE...THE STORM WOULD BE MOST LIKELY TO HAVE A LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS REPRESENTS A SLOWER MOTION THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AND THEREFORE THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FOR OUR AREA SHOULD
BE CONCENTRATED FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY.

KAREN REMAINS SOMEWHAT DISORGANIZED. THE STORM IS FORECAST TO
MAINTAIN A FAIRLY STABLE INTENSITY THROUGH LANDFALL...BUT SOME
INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE AGAIN ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS
KAREN NEARS THE LOUISIANA COAST AND BEGINS TO TURN NORTHEAST.
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL WITH THIS STORM AS THE TIMING
OF THE NORTHEAST TURN COULD MAKE A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IN
LANDFALL LOCATION ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. GIVEN THAT...AND
THE POSSIBILITY OF FURTHER INTENSIFICATION...PEOPLE ARE ADVISED TO
MONITOR FORECASTS CLOSELY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE AS CONDITIONS WARRANT.

FLZ108-112-114-050600-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
SOUTH WALTON-COASTAL BAY-COASTAL GULF-
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013 /459 PM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013/

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

NOW IS THE TIME TO PUT YOUR STORM SAFETY PLAN IN ACTION WHILE THE
STORM IS STILL WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. PREPARE FOR THE
STORM'S ARRIVAL BEFORE THE WEATHER DETERIORATES.

CONSIDER STOCKING UP ON NON-PERISHABLE FOOD ITEMS AND PLENTY OF
WATER...ENOUGH FOR EACH PERSON IN YOUR FAMILY FOR THREE DAYS. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE BATTERIES FOR FLASHLIGHTS AND A RADIO SHOULD YOUR
HOME LOSE POWER.

DO NOT WAIT UNTIL THE STORM GETS CLOSER TO MAKE THE DECISION TO
STOCK UP ON THESE AND OTHER PREPAREDNESS ITEMS. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF
THE QUIET WEATHER TODAY.

STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS BETWEEN
30 AND 37 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A DOWNWARD TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IS
LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...SUSTAINED WINDS
OF 35 TO 45 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

THE STORM SURGE FORECAST IS DEPENDENT UPON THE INTENSITY AND TRACK
OF KAREN...SO FUTURE CHANGES IN EITHER OF THOSE WOULD AFFECT THE
STORM SURGE FORECAST.

...INLAND FLOODING...
GENERAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
FLASH FLOODING PARTICULARLY IN URBAN AREAS.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
TO EARLY MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS AND SURF...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
PANHANDLE BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREAKERS
OF 3 TO 6 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH SATURDAY...INCREASING TO
6 TO 12 FEET BY SUNDAY AS KAREN NEARS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.
THESE WAVES WILL GENERATE LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AS WELL AS
MINOR BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ115-050600-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL FRANKLIN-
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT FRANKLIN COUNTY
BEACHES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR FRANKLIN COUNTY AT
THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL FLOODING AS
TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS BECOME
NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW IMPACT WITH
STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE COMBINATION OF
STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. THIS TRANSLATES TO 1
TO 2 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE
STORM SURGE ZONE.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
FRANKLIN COUNTY.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH TROPICAL STORM
KAREN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR TORNADOES WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
TO EARLY MONDAY.

...RIP CURRENTS...
NORTHWARD MOVING SWELLS GENERATED BY KAREN WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT
FRANKLIN COUNTY BEACHES TODAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BREAKERS OF 2 TO 4 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH LIFE
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS.

$$

FLZ118-127-128-134-050600-
/O.CON.KTAE.HU.S.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL JEFFERSON-COASTAL WAKULLA-COASTAL TAYLOR-COASTAL DIXIE-
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN APPROACHES
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

WHILE NO TROPICAL WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL AREAS OF
APALACHEE BAY AT THIS TIME...THE POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR COASTAL
FLOODING AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST STATES. RESIDENTS SHOULD STAY INFORMED AND LISTEN FOR
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. BE READY TO ACT IF WATCHES OR WARNINGS
BECOME NECESSARY FOR YOUR AREA.

&&

...WINDS...
SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EAST THAN ANTICIPATED...THE
POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD INCREASE.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE GENERAL EXPECTATION AT THIS TIME IS FOR A LOW TO MODERATE
IMPACT WITH STORM SURGE FLOODING WITH STORM TIDE VALUES...THE
COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND TIDE...AROUND 3 TO 5 FEET. THIS
TRANSLATES TO 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL WATER LEVEL RISE ABOVE GROUND
LEVEL WITHIN THE STORM SURGE ZONE...PARTICULARLY NEAR THE HEAD OF
APALACHEE BAY IN WAKULLA...JEFFERSON...AND NORTHERN TAYLOR COUNTIES.

IF KAREN MOVES FURTHER EASTWARD THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...STORM
SURGE VALUES COULD BE MUCH HIGHER RESULTING IN GREATER IMPACT TO
THE COASTAL AREAS OF APALACHEE BAY.

$$

GMZ750-770-050600-
/O.CON.KTAE.TR.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM APALACHICOLA TO DESTIN FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
559 PM EDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BOAT OWNERS AND CAPTAINS OF SMALL CRAFT NEED TO DETERMINE THE
BEST STRATEGY FOR SECURING THEIR CRAFT BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORATE.

&&

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS AROUND
45 PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST FORECAST.
THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED
HIGH WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...MAINLY TO
THE WEST OF CAPE SAN BLAS. IF FUTURE FORECASTS OF TROPICAL STORM
KAREN SHIFT FURTHER TO THE EAST...THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

SEAS WILL LIKELY BUILD TO AT LEAST 16 TO 20 FEET AS KAREN MOVES
CLOSER TO THE AREA...PARTICULARLY ON SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

...WATERSPOUTS...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WITH TROPICAL STORM KAREN. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR WATERSPOUTS WILL BE FROM SUNDAY EVENING TO MONDAY.

$$

08-LAMERS




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