[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 041804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT FRI OCT 04 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 04/1800 UTC IS NEAR 25.8N
90.2W. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 208 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...AND ABOUT 240 NM TO THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE
45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC
ADVISORIES ABOUT KAREN THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2...AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER THE WMO HEADER
WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2. A HURRICANE
WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS
OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 90W.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE
PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS
FROM SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL LOUISIANA TO THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 04/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...
IS 0.49 IN MERIDA MEXICO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N44W 15N47W 10N49W...
NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE...TO
LOCALLY STRONG...FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 18N52W 16N56W...TO
A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 14N57W. THE WAVE WAS
REPOSITIONED IN ORDER TO AGREE WITH LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 8N TO 15N BETWEEN 52W AND 60W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 26N49W 24N50W...TO A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 21N51W. THIS TROUGH IS ENERGY THAT
IS RELATED TO THE 18N52W 14N57W TROPICAL WAVE...THAT WAS
STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS AT LEAST 24 HOURS AGO.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 25N
BETWEEN 45W AND 52W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA
NEAR 10N14W 8N20W 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N25W TO 5N35W
AND 5N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N
TO 7N BETWEEN 12W AND 13W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 16W AND 17W...
FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN
42W AND 44W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL
STORM KAREN. THE EXCEPTION IS THE HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE THAT IS TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N TO THE EAST OF 96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATIONS KGBK...
KVBS...KDLP...AND AT KEIR. LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS
COVER THE ICAO STATION KSPR. ICAO STATION KATP IS REPORTING A
VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND HAZE. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
AREA.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS...
IN VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA...IN GALVESTON AND IN BEAUMONT/PORT
ARTHUR...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS COVER THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAIN COVER
SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND IN COASTAL ALABAMA. MIDDLE LEVEL AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF MARY
ESTHER...LOW CLOUD AND MIDDLE CLOUD CEILINGS IN TALLAHASSEE AND
PERRY FLORIDA...BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE AT THE TAMPA METROPOLITAN
AIRPORT AND AT THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR STATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM KAREN.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS HISPANIOLA...INTO THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 27N67W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE 27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER TO
23N68W...ACROSS THE WESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...TO
15N73W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
22N BETWEEN 64W AND 68W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
ELSEWHERE IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF
HISPANIOLA TO 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W...AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA
IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH
FOR THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY
WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD AS
THE INVERTED TROUGH MOVES TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. THE GFS
MODEL FOR 500 MB AND FOR 250 MB SHOWS SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL
CUT ACROSS THE AREA AND COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS
OR SO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 59W/60W FROM 16N TO
22N MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 58W AND 62W. THIS FEATURE IS JUST
OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 11N80W IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...BEYOND 10N86W IN
COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 12N BETWEEN 70W AND
81W AT 04/0915 UTC HAS WEAKENED COMPARATIVELY. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 7N TO 13N BETWEEN 67W AND
85W.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 10N
TO THE WEST OF 70W.

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
27N67W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE EXCEPTION IS HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE
THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 32N67W TO
26N73W TO 23N78W ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
28N49W AND 25N49W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN
IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 250 NM
TO 400 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE TROUGH.

A WEAKENING MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N36W TO 25N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG
FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE LINGERING PRECIPITATION
ELSEWHERE FROM 19N TO 28N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 31N24W TO 25N31W...TO 29N47W...TO 32N55W...AND
NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND A 1022 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
33N66W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 48-HOUR FORECAST FOR SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO
THE WEST OF 77W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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