[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KMOB 041037
HLSMOB

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM KAREN LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS OF THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AND GULF COAST
WATERS AND BAYS FROM DESTIN TO PASGAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...UPPER
MOBILE...UPPER BALDWIN...LOWER MOBILE...LOWER BALDWIN...INLAND
ESCAMBIA...COASTAL ESCAMBIA...INLAND SANTA ROSA...COASTAL SANTA
ROSA...INLAND OKALOOSA AND COASTAL OKALOOSA.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
THE BAYS AND SOUNDS OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA...AND GULF
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PASCAGOULA OUT 60NM.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.9N...LONGITUDE 89.8W. THIS WAS ABOUT 410 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF MOBILE AL...OR ABOUT 410 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF PENSACOLA FL. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH.
STORM INTENSITY WAS 60 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
GREAT UNCERTAINTY EXISTS IN KAREN'S TRACK AND THE CURRENT FORECAST
IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TURNS KAREN
GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWARD WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED LATER TODAY
WITH ANOTHER GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO BE NEAR THE ALABAMA COAST EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL INUNDATION FROM
THE UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA- MISSISSIPPI BORDER. EAST OF MOBILE BAY 1 TO 3
FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING
AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE
OBSERVED WITH A VERY SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
WIND GUSTS ALONG THE COAST APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN RAIN BANDS...TAPERING OFF TO 35 TO 45 MPH WELL INLAND
OVER SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF KAREN'S CENTER. ISOLATED
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE AS KAREN'S OUTER RAINBANDS APPROACH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN AT THIS TIME.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN MOBILE AROUND 1130 AM CDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

ALZ061>064-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
UPPER MOBILE-UPPER BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE-LOWER BALDWIN-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM SURGE MAY PRODUCE 2 TO 4 FEET OF TOTAL
INUNDATION FROM THE UPPER REACHES OF MOBILE BAY AND WESTWARD ACROSS
THE MISSISSIPPI SOUNDS TO THE ALABAMA-MISSISSIPPI BORDER. DURING THE
HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO
SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE OBSERVED
WITH A SLOW WATER RECESSION DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY MODERATE TREE AND
POWERLINE DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO HIGH SURF
DUE TO POUNDING BREAKERS WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION.

$$

FLZ001>006-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
INLAND ESCAMBIA-COASTAL ESCAMBIA-INLAND SANTA ROSA-
COASTAL SANTA ROSA-INLAND OKALOOSA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
EAST OF MOBILE BAY AND INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE 1 TO 3
FEET OF INUNDATION IS FORECAST. DURING THE HOURS SURROUNDING THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE SATURDAY EVENING AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING IS WHEN THE
HIGHEST WATER LEVELS SHOULD BE OBSERVED WITH A SLOW WATER RECESSION
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS...
THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SPOTTY MODERATE TREE AND
POWERLINE DAMAGE WILL OCCUR...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ALSO HIGH SURF
DUE TO POUNDING BREAKERS WILL CAUSE BEACH EROSION.

$$

GMZ630>632-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
NORTHERN MOBILE BAY-SOUTHERN MOBILE BAY-MISSISSIPPI SOUND-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 56 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDURE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ633-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PERDIDO BAY-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
52 TO 55 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDURE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ634-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
PENSACOLA BAY SYSTEM-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
48 TO 52 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDURE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ635-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
CHOCTAWHATCHEE BAY-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
41 TO 46 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. BAY WATERS BECOME VERY
ROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND ENDURE INTO SUNDAY.

$$

GMZ650-655-670-675-041845-
/O.CON.KMOB.HU.A.1012.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
537 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2013

...HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS
UP TO 60 PERCENT. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START
AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT. AS KAREN MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE
AREA WINDS DECREASE SOMEWHAT AND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN MOVES CLOSER...THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR
STRONG TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE AREA SATURDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT.FULLY DEVELOPED SEAS MAY
APPROACH THE 15 TO 20 FEET RANGE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY.

$$






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