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WTNT32 KNHC 040851
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM KAREN ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL122013
400 AM CDT FRI OCT 04 2013

...KAREN WEAKENS A LITTLE...EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.9N 89.8W
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO WEST OF DESTIN FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
* DESTIN TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE
THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...
CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COASTS OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF KAREN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.8 WEST. KAREN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H.  A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED LATER
TODAY WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF KAREN IS EXPECTED TO
BE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA ON
SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT.

REPORTS FROM AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR
60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS
EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SOME STRENGTHENING POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER..

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE AND NOAA
AIRCRAFT IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING AREA BY TONIGHT OR SATURDAY MORNING.

STORM SURGE...THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE
NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS.
THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE
PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE...

WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO TERREBONNE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO MOBILE BAY...3 TO 5 FT
EAST OF MOBILE BAY TO WEST OF APALACHEE BAY...1 TO 3 FT
APALACHEE BAY...2 TO 4 FT
SOUTH OF APALACHEE BAY TO TAMPA BAY...1 TO 2 FT

THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST NEAR AND TO
THE EAST OF WHERE LANDFALL OCCURS...WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON
THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE...AND CAN VARY
GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR
AREA...PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE.

RAINFALL...KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8
INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF COAST
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF
THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


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