[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 031740
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KAREN AT 03/1500 UTC IS NEAR 22.2N
87.9W...TO THE NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. KAREN IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS.
PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT KAREN THAT ARE ISSUED
UNDER THE WMO HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT2...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR PARTS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 19N IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...TO
23N BETWEEN 84W IN CUBA AND 87W OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE...TO ISOLATED
STRONG...COVER PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO
FROM 17N ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE TO 29N IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
BETWEEN 82W AND 92W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY AT 03/1500 UTC IS IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31.0N 40.2W. JERRY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
10 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40
KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT JERRY THAT ARE
ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT1...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
THE WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER THE AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 36W AND 40W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SURROUNDS T.D. JERRY...FROM 22N TO 30N
BETWEEN 38W AND 47W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS DISAPPEARING MORE
AND MORE WITH TIME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ON THE SOUTHERN
SIDE OF THE DISAPPEARING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 19N TO 26N BETWEEN 37W AND 50W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W TO THE SOUTH OF
17N MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 40W
AND 50W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE CURVES ALONG 52W/53W TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N...MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 12N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 52W AND
56W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N47W 21N48W 18N48W. THIS TROUGH IS
ENERGY THAT IS RELATED PART OF THE 52W/53W TROPICAL WAVE BEING
STRETCHED OUT ALONG A NORTH-TO-SOUTH AXIS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W AND 7N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
7N24W TO 6N30W AND 8N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS/COASTAL WATERS OF GUINEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 4N8W 6N15W
6N20W 5N30W 6N34W 8N38W...FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 20W AND 22W...
AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 32W AND 35W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS PRACTICALLY ALL THE GULF OF MEXICO AREA THAT IS
TO THE WEST OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL
STORM KAREN. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS
WITHIN 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE AREA OF T.S. KAREN. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO
THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 31N81W...TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN
FLORIDA...TO CUBA NEAR 23N80W.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KGBK. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

BROKEN LOW CLOUDS COVER SLIGHTLY MORE THAN FIFTY PERCENT OF THE
STATIONS IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL AND
MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE RAIN COVER THE HOUSTON
METROPOLITAN AREA TOWARD THE BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR AREA OF TEXAS.
BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...EXTENDING
INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...MISSISSIPPI...AND ALABAMA.
SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAIN COVER
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE WEST OF PANAMA CITY. OVERCAST LOW
CLOUDS COVER PERRY FLORIDA. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
THE AREA FROM PUNTA GORDA TO NAPLES...AND THE KEY WEST NAVAL AIR
STATION.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL
STORM KAREN.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE... AND
AWAY FROM THE WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND TROPICAL STORM
KAREN.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 17N68W
147N70W...INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA/NORTHEASTERN COLOMBIA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF
67W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 03/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.17 IN TRINIDAD.

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM
PUERTO RICO EASTWARD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N73W IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...THROUGH 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
COLOMBIA AND PANAMA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 9N
TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IS ELSEWHERE
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W IN PARTS OF PANAMA AND COSTA
RICA AND THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHEAST
TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N
TO 13N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

HISPANIOLA...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 26N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE 26N67W CYCLONIC CENTER. DRIER
AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL AREAS OF
HISPANIOLA. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS
APPARENT.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE
SURROUNDED BY CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH.
THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN A COL FOR
MOST OF THE TIME. A TROUGH WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FROM THE NORTH
BY THE END OF THE 48 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR
250 MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHEAST AND COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N59W TO 30N65W TO A 26N67W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE
26N67W CYCLONIC CENTER...FROM 20N NORTHWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 29N52W AND 26N56W. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH IS TO THE WEST OF THE 26N67W CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG 29N73W
26N72W 24N73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE
OF 26N64W 23N66W 22N70W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS TO 30N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...
AND FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM TO 120
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 32N52W 30N57W 28N64W 26N69W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/1200
UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.08 IN BERMUDA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
FROM TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND 66W...ON THE
SOUTHEASTERN AND SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE 26N67W ATLANTIC OCEAN
CYCLONIC CENTER.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MADEIRA
ARCHIPELAGO TO 26N24W TO 19N27W AND 13N28W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THE TROUGH.

A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N33W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
32N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 37W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL
PART OF THE AREA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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