[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 031431
TCDAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 AM AST THU OCT 03 2013

JERRY IS PRODUCING ONLY MEAGER AMOUNTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...AND THAT
CONVECTION IS PRIMARILY RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION.  THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 30 KT IN AGREEMENT
WITH A DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND
EXPERIENCE INCREASING WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE
SYSTEM TO DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY AND DISSIPATE
ENTIRELY BY 96 HOURS.  SOME OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SYSTEM COULD DISSIPATE EVEN SOONER.

THE FORWARD SPEED IS GRADUALLY INCREASING AND THE MOTION IS NOW
ABOUT 050/10.  NO IMPORTANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK
FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  JERRY SHOULD MOVE
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AT A FASTER FORWARD
SPEED...AHEAD OF A BROAD TROUGH IN THE MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES.  AFTER
THE SYSTEM BECOMES A REMNANT LOW...IT IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN A BIT
AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL
CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  03/1500Z 31.0N  40.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  04/0000Z 31.9N  38.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  04/1200Z 32.9N  35.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  05/0000Z 33.9N  33.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  05/1200Z 35.2N  31.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  06/1200Z 38.5N  27.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


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