[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 022033
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
500 PM AST WED OCT 02 2013

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF JERRY IS SOMEWHAT DISHEVELED THIS
AFTERNOON. CLOUD TOPS HAVE WARMED OVERALL...AND THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB. JERRY CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL LOW WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION. WHILE JERRY WILL BE MOVING AWAY
FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO....THE CYCLONE
WILL BE MOVING OVER SUB-26C WATERS BY 36 HOURS AND VERTICAL SHEAR
GRADUALLY INCREASES. THIS MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD RESULT IN
LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 72 HOURS...AND THE NHC FORECAST
IS BELOW THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AIDS AND CLOSER TO THE GFDL/HWRF
MODELS. JERRY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 96 HOURS AND
DISSIPATE BY 5 DAYS... ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER AS
INDICATED BY SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS.

THE INITIAL POSITION OF JERRY HAS BEEN RELOCATED BASED ON A 1457Z
AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CENTER IS FARTHER
NORTHEAST THAN PREVIOUS ESTIMATES. THIS RELOCATION SUGGESTS THAT
THE CYCLONE HAS BEGUN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 045/05. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING
REMAINS UNCHANGED...AS JERRY IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. OVERALL
THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE NEW MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND ROUGHLY
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF THROUGH 72 HOURS. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS
FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...FOLLOWING THE TREND OF THE
LATEST GUIDANCE.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  02/2100Z 29.3N  42.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 30.2N  41.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 31.5N  39.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 32.6N  36.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 33.6N  34.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 35.5N  30.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 38.0N  26.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  07/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN


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