[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 011804
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 01 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JERRY AT 01/1500 UTC IS NEAR 28.1N
43.5W...NEARLY IN THE MIDDLE OF BERMUDA AND THE AZORES. JERRY IS
STATIONARY AT THE MOMENT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE PUBLIC ADVISORIES ABOUT JERRY THAT
ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT31 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER
MIATCPAT1...AND THE FORECAST/ADVISORIES THAT ARE ISSUED UNDER
WMO HEADER WTNT21 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT1.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 29N
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 82W FROM CUBA SOUTHWARD. A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS ALONG THE TROUGH NEAR 16N. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 20N
BETWEEN 76W AND 82W...INCLUDING ACROSS JAMAICA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.05 IN MONTEGO BAY IN JAMAICA. SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS
WHILE IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 9 KNOTS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WHEN THE DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO LATER THIS WEEK. THE SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF JAMAICA...CUBA...AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W TO THE SOUTH OF
14N MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 30W AND 31W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
LINGERING PRECIPITATION COVER THE AREA ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 14N
BETWEEN 26W AND 33W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N40W 14N39W 10N38W
MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
19N41W 17N40W 14N39W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS OF SENEGAL
NEAR 14N17W TO 13N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 13N19W TO 10N26W
8N29W 11N31W 10N38W 9N44W 8N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 49W.SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 23W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN
24W AND 26W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
3N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CENTRAL
LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ALONG THE TEXAS GULF
COAST...BEYOND 25N100W IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS TO THE
NORTHWEST OF 30N89W 27N87W 24N97W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THE TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR
IN SUBSIDENCE AS SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 42-
HOUR FORECAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH TO BE ALONG 86W TO THE SOUTH
OF 26N. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THIS FEATURE MAY DEVELOP INTO A
TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXPECT SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 21N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
WESTERN CUBA TO EASTERN COASTAL HONDURAS. THIS TROUGH IS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE DEVELOPING 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 16N82W...ALONG THE 82W SURFACE TROUGH.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
PARTS OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N/25N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W.

UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW ALSO COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE EAST OF 66W. THIS NORTHERLY WIND FLOW IS RESIDUAL FLOW FROM
A TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...REACHING
21N64W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN IMMEDIATELY TO THE
EAST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND PARTS OF NORTHERN COASTAL SOUTH AMERICA FROM 6N TO 13N
BETWEEN 57W AND 62W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...IS 0.95 IN
TRINIDAD.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N FROM 83W BEYOND 86W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 77W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT EAST
WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 65W AND 72W.

HISPANIOLA...

UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND PARTS
OF THE BAHAMAS TO THE SOUTH OF 24N/25N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

THE GFS FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED
RIDGE WILL COVER THE AREA. THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT
HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH FOR THE
ENTIRE 48 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS FORECAST FOR 250
MB SHOWS THAT A TROUGH WILL CUT ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FIRST 24 HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT OF
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE REPLACED BY A NORTHEAST-TO-
SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE NORTHWESTERN
SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 25N62W TO 21N64W. ONE SURFACE TROUGH IS
ALONG 32N75W 30N78W 27N79W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG
33N62W 30N61W 28N61W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 24N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 69W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG  ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 27N
BETWEEN 73W AND 81W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 27N TO
34N BETWEEN 64W AND 78W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS IN INCHES
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN...ARE
0.08 IN BERMUDA AND 0.15 IN NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS.

A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 24N63W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 27N
BETWEEN 54W AND 71W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SUPPORTS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH
32N17W TO 30N23W 29N30W AND 29N37W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 22W AND 38W.

A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 25N29W. SURFACE
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO
28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 38W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM JERRY IN THE NORTH CENTRAL PART OF
THE AREA. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20
TO 25 KNOTS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 FEET FROM 15N TO 18N TO THE EAST
OF 39W. A THIRD AREA CONSISTS OF WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEA
HEIGHTS TO 8 FEET TO THE NORTH OF 29N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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