[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 011442
TCDAT1

TROPICAL STORM JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL112013
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 01 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW AN EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATED TO
THE WEST OF A SMALL AREA OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION.  BASED ON
DATA FROM A RECENT ASCAT OVERPASS AND A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 40
KT.  ANIMATION OF WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A LARGE MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE STORM...SO
STRENGTHENING DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY IN THE SHORT TERM. LATER IN
THE FORECAST PERIOD...WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVENT
MUCH...IF ANY...INTENSIFICATION.  BY 5 DAYS...EVEN STRONGER SHEAR
IS LIKELY TO CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR
SOONER.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
MODEL CONSENSUS BUT BELOW THE STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL LGEM GUIDANCE.

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RECENT MOVEMENT...SO THE INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE IS STATIONARY.  JERRY IS CURRENTLY SITUATED IN A REGION OF
WEAK STEERING CURRENTS...BUT MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATE
THAT THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD BETWEEN TWO MID-LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE AREAS OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  AFTERWARD...THE
STORM IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD AND EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS
IT COMES UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE HIGHER-LATITUDE WESTERLIES.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.

THE WIND RADII WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  01/1500Z 28.1N  43.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  02/0000Z 28.1N  43.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  02/1200Z 28.7N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  03/0000Z 29.5N  44.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 48H  03/1200Z 30.3N  43.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 72H  04/1200Z 31.5N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  05/1200Z 32.5N  37.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
120H  06/1200Z 33.0N  34.0W   35 KT  40 MPH

$$
FORECASTER PASCH



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