[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301133
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN JUN 30 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W/33W
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.
THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE SURFACE...BUT
IT LINES UP WELL WITH A 700 MB TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 20N62W 16N65W 10N66W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE AREA OF THE 24N66W 11N67W MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BETWEEN 54W AND 67W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO
TO THE SOUTH OF 22N. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD
5 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IN CLUSTERS FROM 15N 19N BETWEEN 78W AND
80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA FROM 20N
TO THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W AND 84W.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...THROUGH COSTA RICA...INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND 12N88W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...INTO
THE NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS...TO EL SALVADOR AND
SOUTHERN HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL AREAS
OF SOUTHWESTERN SENEGAL TO 10N20W AND 10N21W.
THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 10N21W AND IT CONTINUES TO
8N26W 3N36W AND 2N44W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM
TO 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N16W 9N22W 8N27W
6N33W 1N40W 2N44W 2N51W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE BASE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS
WORKED ITS WAY TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA. A SURFACE TROUGH HAS FORMED FROM SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA...INTO THE COASTAL WATERS...TO THE UPPER TEXAS
GULF COAST. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
FROM 28N TO 30N BETWEEN 88W AND 92W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 29N89W
TO 24N93W...INTO MEXICO BEYOND 24N98W AT THE COAST.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE
SOUTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 90W.

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...ROUGHLY FROM
250 MB TO 100 MB...PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THEN
CURVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE BAHAMAS
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE WIND FLOW FOR THE LEVELS
FROM 250 MB AND LOWER TO 600 MB IS SOUTHWESTERLY...
UNDER THE 100 MB TO 250 MB ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
22N73W...TO 21N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF
THE COAST OF CUBA. THE 82W/83W TROPICAL WAVE BREAKS
UP THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW.

MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS WITH LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING OBSERVED ALONG THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.
A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS IN PART OF THE NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED FROM THE ALABAMA GULF
COAST TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR MARY ESTHER AND
DESTIN/VALPARAISO. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER
FLORIDA FROM NAPLES TO FORT MYERS AND SARASOTA.
RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN
PERRY FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KBBF AND KGUL. A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS AT KGBK. MULTILAYERED CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT THE ICAO STATIONS
KMDG AND KDLP.

FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...INTO THE SOUTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST
OF 80W...INCLUDING CENTRAL AMERICA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF 22N IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND
110W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 24N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N67W ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 60W AND
63W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
BETWEEN 54W AND 67W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN
67W AND 69W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 32N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO THE SOUTH OF
22N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
IN CLUSTERS FROM 15N 19N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W...
AND TO THE SOUTH OF WESTERN CUBA FROM 20N TO THE
COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 81W AND 84W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...
TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...THROUGH COSTA RICA...INTO
SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND 12N88W INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM SOUTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...INTO
THE NICARAGUA COASTAL WATERS...TO EL SALVADOR AND
SOUTHERN HONDURAS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 5N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 42 HOUR FORECAST THAT INCLUDES
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 69W AND 74W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 24N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...TO 15N67W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 11N67W ALONG THE
COAST OF VENEZUELA. HISPANIOLA IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE TROUGH.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT A COMPARATIVELY
NARROW RIDGE THAT WILL BE ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA AT
THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD EVENTUALLY WILL
OPEN INTO A COMPARATIVELY BROADER RIDGE ACROSS THE
AREA BY 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS
THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL
COVER THE AREA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS.
THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUTTING
HISPANIOLA IN AN AREA OF SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW
UNTIL THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FOR
250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE MOSTLY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS PUERTO
RICO. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH
TIME AND BECOME COMPARATIVELY BROADER IN COVERAGE
IN ORDER TO SPAN HISPANIOLA ALSO. BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE
FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW...ROUGHLY FROM
250 MB TO 100 MB...PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO SOUTH FLORIDA...AND THEN
CURVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE BAHAMAS
FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 75W AND 79W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 20N
TO THE WEST OF 70W. THE WIND FLOW FOR THE LEVELS
FROM 250 MB AND LOWER TO 600 MB IS SOUTHWESTERLY...
UNDER THE 100 MB TO 250 MB ANTICYCLONIC WIND REGIME.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 33N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N39W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N53W 29N54W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N61W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
22N73W...TO 21N80W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST OFF
THE COAST OF CUBA.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 13N50W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N...EXCEPT FOR THE AREA
THAT IS AROUND THE 32N53W 29N54W SURFACE TROUGH.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS
20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
9N TO 16N BETWEEN 41W AND 56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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