[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291145
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT JUN 29 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W
TO THE SOUTH OF 18N...MOVING WESTWARD 5 TO 10 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO
LOCALLY STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 28W
IN THE ITCZ. THE WAVE IS ILL-DEFINED AT THE
SURFACE...BUT ALIGNS WELL WITH A 700 MB TROUGH.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 18N56W 15N60W...INTO EASTERN VENEZUELA
NEAR 8N62W. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
15 TO 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN
52W AND 60W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
55W AND 64W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 82W/83W TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN NORTH-
WESTERN VENEZUELA AND 80W...AND FROM 12N80W...
ACROSS THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN
NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS HAS MOVED
WESTWARD...EITHER IN EL SALVADOR STILL AND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA AND
TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO
THE WEST OF 76W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W AND 7N25W. THE ITCZ
STARTS NEAR 8N25W AND IT CONTINUES TO 4N34W AND
3N36W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N TO THE
EAST OF 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG
FROM 2N TO 6N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 29N88W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG COVERS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N TO 31N
BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W ALONG THE BORDER OF
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
NEAR 23N95W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND COASTAL MEXICO FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN
90W AND 100W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH
OF 26N BETWEEN 90W AND MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N56W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 24N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N77W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO
A 1014 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 24N92W...TOWARD THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST IN...
ANGLETON/LAKE JACKSON AND GALVESTON...IN LOUISIANA
IN LAKE CHARLES...IN LAFAYETTE WITH RAIN...IN
NEW IBERIA...AND IN SLIDELL. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS
ARE IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW
CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN MISSISSIPPI FROM
GULFPORT EASTWARD...IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA WITH
RAIN AND THUNDER...MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND
RAIN AND THUNDER COVER THE FLORIDA TO THE WEST OF
PERRY. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG
THE U.S.A. GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE AT BEING OBSERVED AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...AT KMIU OFF THE TEXAS
COAST...AND KDLP OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N65W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 15N66W IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...FROM 22N TO 24N
BETWEEN 64W AND 65W. RAINSHOWERS ALSO ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW
COVERS CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. SCATTERED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE CARIBBEAN
SEA AND PARTS OF CUBA FROM 18N TO 21N BETWEEN 75W
AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE BAHAMAS FROM
22N TO 28N BETWEEN 72W AND 80W.

BROAD NORTHWESTERLY-TO-WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS
THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 11N/12N BETWEEN NORTH-
WESTERN VENEZUELA AND 80W...AND FROM 12N80W...
ACROSS THE NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA BORDER. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS. THE EARLIER NUMEROUS STRONG THAT WAS IN
NICARAGUA...EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS HAS MOVED
WESTWARD...EITHER IN EL SALVADOR STILL AND IN THE
COASTAL WATERS FROM COSTA RICA TO NICARAGUA AND
TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 13N TO
THE WEST OF 76W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 15N
BETWEEN 69W AND 73W. EXPECT ALSO WINDS 20 KNOTS
OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM
13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 77W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N65W...ABOUT 350 NM TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF HISPANIOLA. MIDDLE LEVEL
TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES THE
AREA.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS A RIDGE WILL BE ON
TOP OF HISPANIOLA...UNTIL THE END OF THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT WESTWARD...
BEING REPLACED BY AN INVERTED TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST
ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL
FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE MOSTLY ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF TROUGH THAT WILL BE ALONG 64W
AND 65W/66W WITH TIME. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO SHIFT WESTWARD WITH TIME...ENOUGH IN ORDER TO
PASS THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE DURING THE SECOND
HALF OF DAY TWO OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES ALONG
THE U.S.A. EAST COAST...THROUGH 32N...AND REACHING
NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE
U.S.A. EAST COAST...PASSING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...TO 29N88W IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG COVERS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N TO 31N
BETWEEN 85W AND 87W...AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 31N BETWEEN 90W AND 92W ALONG THE BORDER OF
MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 90W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 32N43W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N42W AND
14N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 39W AND 44W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N56W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH 24N67W...TO THE BAHAMAS
NEAR 24N77W...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...TO
A 1014 MB GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 24N92W...TOWARD THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 20N
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N43W TO 21N45W
TO 4N48W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS 20 KNOTS OR LESS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN
54W AND 59W...FOR ABOUT THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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