[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 272341
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU JUN 27 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA EXTENDING FROM
13N22W TO 4N23W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES WEST OF A
SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY NEAR THE WAVE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N47W TO 2N49W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS MAINLY EAST OF THE WAVE
FROM 1N-10N BETWEEN 40W-48W...AND WEST OF THE WAVE FROM 7N-9N
BETWEEN 52W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 36W-39W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG
21N73W TO 11N72W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. A MODERATE SURGE OF
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS...WITH THE HIGHEST
MOISTURE LEVELS NEAR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-73W. A CLUSTER OF NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 72W-75W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
22N84W TO 8N84W MOVING WEST NEAR 10 KT. THE WAVE HAS MODERATE
MOISTURE SIGNAL NEAR THE AXIS PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY
THROUGHOUT CUBA. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE CONTINUING INTO THE E PACIFIC. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS ALSO INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR
12N16W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 8N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG
7N35W 5N44W. ANY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH IS
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL WAVES AND IS DISCUSSED IN THAT SECTION
ABOVE

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1018
MB HIGH NEAR 27N90W. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE
RIDGE. ALOFT...UPPER TROUGHING DOMINATES WITH AN AXIS EXTENDING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE REMAINDER BECOMES A
CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 22N95W. THE UPPER
LOW IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 22N BETWEEN
86W-92W. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER NORTHERN FLORIDA IS ALSO PROVIDING
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND SUPPORTS SEVERAL
ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 26N-29N. A
FEW WIDELY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 84W-
93W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGHOUT
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS ALONG
84W. DRY AIR OVER WATER IS LIMITING CONVECTION NEAR MUCH OF THE
WAVE EXCEPT FOR STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER CUBA.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF THE WAVE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W-86W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA
TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. THE SECOND WAVE IS NEAR 73W. THE STRONGEST
MOISTURE SIGNALS ARE NEAR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN ENDS OF THE
WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA.
A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG ACTIVITY IS ALSO OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA.  ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE MAJORITY OF
THE BASIN CENTERED NEAR 14N79W WHILE BROAD UPPER TROUGHING
COVERS THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. BOTH WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
WEST.

HISPANIOLA...
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF
THE ISLAND FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W. MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
COVERS THE ISLAND EAST OF 71W. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION OF THE ISLAND. INCREASED MOISTURE CONTINUES TO THE EAST
OF THE WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOISTURE WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE WILL
LIKELY REACH THE ISLAND BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST ATLC AROUND A 1024 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N60W. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 76W...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW SPINS TO THE EAST NEAR 25N63W. THE UPPER LOW IS
SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N63W TO 19N66W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 59W-67W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 60W-64W. A
SECOND WEAK UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 57W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH
AXIS NEAR 42W...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 23W. AT THE
SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING FROM A 1038 MB HIGH
NEAR 46N22W. UPPER RIDGING ALSO COVERS THE EXTREME TROPICAL
ATLC. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE THAT
A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO
NEAR 45W AROUND THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLC.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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