[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 262357
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N42W TO 2N43W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT.
THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT
IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 40W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
21N70W TO 13N67W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS EAST OF THE WAVE AND WRAPS AROUND THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE AXIS. DRIER AIR HAS UNDERCUT THIS MOISTURE TO THE
NORTH SO THAT NO DEEP CONVECTION IS AROUND THE SOUTHERN PORTION
OF THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 62W-72W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG
22N80W TO 14N80W MOVING WEST NEAR 15 KT. THE WAVE HAS A WEAK
MOISTURE SIGNAL WITH IT OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION AND A STRONGER
SIGNAL TO THE SOUTH WITH RELATIVELY DRY AIR NEAR THE CENTRAL
PORTION. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS THROUGHOUT
CUBA. NO OTHER ACTIVITY IS NEAR THE WAVE AXIS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W
TO 8N21W 7N25W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 7N25W AND CONTINUES ALONG
9N41W 4N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N
BETWEEN 22W-27W...AND FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 28W-35W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 47W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1019
MB HIGH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N85W. LIGHT ANTI-
CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE RIDGE WITH ONLY A SMALL AREA OF 15
KT WINDS NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF TEXAS. ALOFT...AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES THE BASIN CENTERED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
NEAR 21N93W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN GULF. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 18N-22N
BETWEEN 87W-92W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN HALF. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE FIRST IS ALONG
80W. DRY AIR IS LIMITING CONVECTION TO THE WAVE. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONLY ACROSS CUBA WITH A FEW OVER
JAMAICA. THE SECOND WAVE IS APPROACHING 70W. MOISTURE WITH THIS
WAVE IS MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AXIS. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND
THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ALSO OVER COSTA RICA...PANAMA...AND THE WATERS JUST EAST OF
COSTA RICA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG
10N TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA. ALOFT...BROAD UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE
MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS THROUGHOUT
THE AREA. BOTH WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST.

HISPANIOLA...
CLUSTERS OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND FROM 18N-19N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A SMALLER
CLUSTER IS OVER THE FAR SW CORNER OF HAITI. THIS ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGHER MOISTURE NEAR A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OVER
THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE ISLAND. INCREASED MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE...AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
ISLAND FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING COVERS THE WEST ATLC AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH
NEAR 30N62W. ALOFT...AN UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 78W...WHILE AN
UPPER LOW SPINS TO THE EAST NEAR 26N66W. THE UPPER LOW IS
SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN
65W-68W. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS ALONG 57W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH
DOMINATES MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVELS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC.
HOWEVER...AT THE SURFACE...BROAD RIDGING DOMINATES EXTENDING
FROM A 1039 MB HIGH NEAR 46N24W. UPPER RIDGING COVERS THE
EXTREME TROPICAL ATLC. THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE
DAY INDICATE THAT A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDS FROM THE
COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON

This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net