[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260600
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 26 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N74W TO 13N75W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT IN THE SW
PERIPHERY OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC...PORTIONS
OF THE CARIBBEAN AND THE GULF. THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS MOISTURE N OF 17N WHICH IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 72W-
76W. THE WAVE WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND IS EXPECTED TO
VANISH BEFORE/AFTER CROSSING WESTERN CUBA ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO HAS BROUGHT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH IT AND SHOWERS HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO INCHES OR MORE IN
SOME AREAS. THE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG 19N64W TO 11N64W IN
THE SE CARIBBEAN AND IS MOVING W-NW AT 10 KT. HIGH LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING
CONTINUOUS RAINSHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
LESSER ANTILLES...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF DOMINICA. THE WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF PUERTO RICO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND START MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE
EARLY EVENING. RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ISLAND
DURING THAT PERIOD WITH SKIES CLEARING VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY.

TROPICAL WAVE CONTINUE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH AXIS ALONG
11N37W TO 04N37W...MOVING WEST AT 10 KT. IT IS SHOWING A BETTER
AMPLITUDE IN THE 700 MB AND CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO THIS WAVE ARE FROM 02N-07N BETWEEN 38W-44W WHERE
HIGH LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS HUMIDITY IS OBSERVED IN BOTH TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. NO CONVECTION IS
OCCURRING IN THE NORTHERN ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE N OF 07N DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF SAHARAN DRY AIR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
11N15W TO 08N21W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 08N21W AND IT CONTINUES
TO 07N27W 06N33W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ALREADY DESCRIBED ABOVE
WITHIN THE TROPICAL WAVE ENVIRONMENT EMBEDDED IN THE
ITCZ...CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM
06N-10N EAST OF 21W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING FROM A SET OF HIGH PRESSURES N OF THE AREA
OVER THE NORTH ATLC EXTENDS INTO THE GULF GENERATING RETURN FLOW
IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. MODERATE MOISTURE AT
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS COMBINED WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
FROM A RIDGE EAST OF 89W AND ANOTHER RIDGE W OF 90W MAY IS
ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 27N-28N BETWEEN 87W-89W.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN THE SW GULF FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO DUE TO A SURFACE
TROUGH MOVING TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW A DRY ENVIRONMENT IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE LEVELS W OF 91W N OF 21N WHICH IS SUPPRESSING ANY TYPE OF
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE CURRENT  WEATHER FEATURES IN THE LOWER
AND UPPER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING EASTERN CUBA WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N74W TO 13N75W. THE WAVE IS WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVELS MOISTURE N OF 17N WHICH IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N-22N BETWEEN 72W-76W.
TROPICAL WAVE WITH AXIS JUST EAST OF PUERTO RICO HAS BROUGHT
ABUNDANT MOISTURE WITH IT AND SHOWERS HAS BEEN OCCURRING ACROSS
THE ISLAND WITH RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO INCHES OR MORE IN
SOME AREAS. THE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ALONG 19N64W TO 11N64W IN
THE SE CARIBBEAN. HIGH LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING CONTINUOUS RAINSHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE LESSER
ANTILLES...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF DOMINICA. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN S OF 13N
WHERE HIGH MOISTURE IS OBSERVED AT THE LOWER LEVELS. SIMILAR
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM OF THE COASTS OF BELIZE AND HONDURAS.
ELSEWHERE CLEAR SKIES SUPPORTED BY THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN
THE LOWER LEVELS.

IN THE UPPER LEVELS A BROAD RIDGE COVERS THE BASIN WHILE AT THE
SURFACE TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE.
OTHERWISE...THE WAVE OVER CUBA WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK
AND IS EXPECTED TO VANISH BEFORE/AFTER CROSSING WESTERN CUBA ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE WAVE EAST OF PUERTO RICO IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE OFF THE WESTERN COAST OF THE ISLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
START MOVING OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IN THE EARLY EVENING.
RAINSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE PUERTO RICO DURING THAT
PERIOD WITH SKIES CLEARING VERY EARLY ON THURSDAY.

HISPANIOLA...
DRY SURFACE CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE ISLAND WHILE LIGHT
TRADEWINDS OF 5 KT FLOW OVER IT. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
START TO DEGRADE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVING
ACROSS PUERTO RICO CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD PUSHING AN
ENVELOPE OF HIGH MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT. THE AXIS OF THIS WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC EARLY IN THE EVENING.
RAINSHOWERS WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF TWO INCHES OR HIGHER CAN BE
EXPECTED. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO COME OFF THE COAST OF HAITI
ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 15N FROM A
SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION AND A
1023 MB STATIONARY HIGH NEAR 30N65W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC FROM 32N50W TO 28N51W 27N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH IT ARE N OF 26N BETWEEN 47W-51W. EXCEPT FOR THE
AREAS DISCUSSED ABOVE...TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN
OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT AT THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING
FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS


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