[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260003
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W
TO THE SOUTH OF 12N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN THE
ITCZ FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 35W AND 39W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO
THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND
64W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS...TO WESTERN HAITI...TO 13N75W IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT
15 KNOTS. THE WAVE WAS IN THE MONA PASSAGE
24 HOURS AGO. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE
PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO WAS 1.93 INCHES...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT JUST IS RELATED TO THE WAVE
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE PRECIPITATION THAT ALSO IS
WITH THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N20W AND 8N24W. THE ITCZ
STARTS NEAR 8N24W AND IT CONTINUES TO 8N30W 7N34W
3N43W AND 2N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 7N TO 9N TO THE EAST OF 19W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO
8N BETWEEN 20W AND 50W....AND FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 9N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.
THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 29N87W IN THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...SCATTERED STRONG
IN SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA AND IN SOUTH-
EASTERN LOUISIANA. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO
THE EAST OF 90W.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 104W IN MEXICO.
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF HURRICANE COSME THAT IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO...NEAR 16N91W...INTO THE SOUTH-
WESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 21N92W...
TO 24N92W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG IN NORTHERN GUATEMALA...AND IN THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 19N TO 20N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER
ALONG 14N/15N TO 17N BETWEEN 84W AND 89W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N84W IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N66W...
TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...TO 23N95W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN PORT ISABEL
TEXAS...AND IN LOUISIANA AT AMELIA/LAKE PALOURDE.
A CLOUD CEILING OF 7500 FEET IS OBSERVED IN
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA. THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT
IS REPORTING CLOUD CEILINGS AT 5500 FEET AND
AT 9000 FEET. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING OBSERVED IN SARASOTA FLORIDA...AND AT NAPLES
WITH RAINSHOWERS. HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED
IN TEXAS AT ELLINGTON FIELD IN HOUSTON...IN THE
NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA...IN
FLORIDA AT THE NAVAL AIR STATIONS IN PENSACOLA
AND AT WHITING FIELD...IN VALPARAISO...AND AT
THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF
OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A CLOUD CEILING AT 7000 FEET IS REPORTED AT THE
ICAO STATION KGBK...AND AT 5000 FEET OR LOWER AT
THE ICAO STATION KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES
AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE AREA.

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N70W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO CUBA ALONG 80W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN CUBA
TO THE EAST OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE SOUTH OF 28N
BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE AND
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM ALREADY-DISSIPATED
ACTIVITY FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 62W AND 75W.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO
THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND 80W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 11N62W IN THE SOUTH-
EASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...ACROSS NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA...TO 16N81W...TOWARD THE COAST
OF BELIZE/THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA OF MEXICO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 74W IN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHERN COASTAL PANAMA...BEYOND
SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 81W...
INCLUDING IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND NORTHERN
COSTA RICA...AT 25/1745 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS
WEAKENED WITH TIME. SCATTERED STRONG IS WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 11N81W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...IN PANAMA FROM 8N TO 9N
BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...AND IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND THE PENINSULA DE LA GUAJIRA OF
NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 10N BETWEEN
70W AND 73W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W FROM 11N TO 20N. EXPECT
EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 64W.
EXPECT ALSO NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 72W
AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 70W AND
72W.

HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA FINDS ITSELF TO THE SOUTH OF AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 27N70W MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER...ACROSS THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...TO
CUBA ALONG 80W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTH-
WESTERLY WIND FLOW CROSSES HISPANIOLA. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC
FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO WAS 1.93 INCHES...ACCORDING
TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION
TABLE...MIATPTPAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG BETWEEN 71W AND 72W NEAR 19N AND
THE BORDER WITH HAITI. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE ISLAND.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 62W/63W TO
THE SOUTH OF 20N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND
64W. IT IS EASILY POSSIBLE THAT THIS WAVE MAY BE
AFFECTING HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE
WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM JAMAICA TO
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE A TROUGH...
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N66W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N38W TO 26N43W TO 16N50W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN
24W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1018 MB
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N51W...TO 30N52W
AND 28N54W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN 38W AND 60W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE TO THE
NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 46W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
40W AND 60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG 30N58W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N66W...TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...TO 23N95W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 28N50W.
BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 50W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 24 HOUR FORECAST FOR THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 42W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. EXPECT
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS...EXCEPT EAST
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE...SEA
HEIGHTS LOWER THAN 8 FEET...WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF THE WAVE FROM 8N TO 15N.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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