[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO
20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
52W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N
TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST OFF
THE WESTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MONA PASSAGE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO TO 23N BETWEEN 64W
AND 68W...MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL
NEAR 13N17W TO 9N20W AND 8N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS
NEAR 8N25W AND IT CONTINUES TO 6N30W 4N35W AND
3N41W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 9N BETWEEN
20W AND 40W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE TO THE
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES OF THE U.S.A. THE CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE TROUGH REMAINS
OVER LAND...IN THE COASTAL PLAINS.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 102W/103W IN MEXICO.
THIS ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW IS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF TROPICAL STORM COSME THAT IS IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N84W IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA BETWEEN 80W AND 90W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 32N77W...INTO GEORGIA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N91W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN TEXAS IN
BROWNSVILLE AND PORT ISABEL...AND IN FALFURRIAS.
A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN TEXAS IN
BEAUMONT...IN FLORIDA...WITH RAIN IN MARIANNA...IN
BROOKSVILLE...AT THE TAMPA INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...
AND AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN KEY WEST.
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AT THE MOBILE
REGIONAL AIRPORT IN ALABAMA...IN FLORIDA AT THE NAVAL
AIR STATIONS IN PENSACOLA AND AT WHITING FIELD WITH
THUNDER AND RAIN...AND IN VALPARAISO.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE ALONG THE U.S.A.
GULF OF MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

UPPER LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES ACROSS
COLOMBIA TOWARD PANAMA AND COSTA RICA...AND IT
CROSSES THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
SOME OF THE WIND FLOW EVENTUALLY CURVES NORTHEASTWARD
AS SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW CROSSES THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TOWARD CUBA...
JAMAICA...HISPANIOLA...AND BEYOND...INTO THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN. A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC WIND FLOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
FROM HONDURAS TO 19N BETWEEN 85W AND BELIZE AND THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY
WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA

THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N BETWEEN 73W IN
COLOMBIA...ACROSS PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA
RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...FROM 6N IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TO 10N IN WESTERN COSTA RICA BETWEEN 80W AND 85W.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 5N TO
9N BETWEEN 72W IN VENEZUELA AND 75W IN COLOMBIA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS 20 TO
25 KNOTS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 15N
BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. ALSO EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR
LESS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO
16N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.

HISPANIOLA...

HISPANIOLA FINDS ITSELF ON THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTH-
EASTERN SIDE OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
THAT ORIGINATES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM A 28N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO A 25N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST
TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE TROUGH CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER
LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS PUSHING MOISTURE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IN EASTERN CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE COVERING PARTS OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THE BAHAMAS...
AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 18N TO 28N BETWEEN 68W
AND 83W. 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTALS FOR THE PERIOD
ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC ARE...0.59 OF AN INCH IN
GUADELOUPE...0.67 OF AN INCH FOR SAN JUAN PUERTO
RICO...AND 0.17 OF AN INCH FOR ST. THOMAS IN THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W...
MOVING WESTWARD 15 TO 20 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS JUST OFF
THE WESTERN SIDE OF PUERTO RICO IN THE MONA PASSAGE.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM PUERTO RICO TO 23N BETWEEN 64W
AND 68W...MOSTLY IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EAST-TO-SOUTHEAST
WIND FLOW WILL BE CROSSING HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. THE GFS MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A RIDGE
WILL COVER THE AREA. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF
A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH. A RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM JAMAICA TO
CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS. HISPANIOLA WILL BE A TROUGH...
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N66W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER AT THE END OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 29N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 24N37W
16N41W. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
PASSES THROUGH 32N48W TO 26N46W. THIS TROUGH HAS
BEEN MOVING SOUTHWARD WITH TIME. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 25W AND 57W.
A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 33N50W TO 32N53W
AND 31N57W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED
MODERATE TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W.
SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 59W AND
60W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N64W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 32N77W...INTO GEORGIA...INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO NEAR 26N91W...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 20N97W ALONG THE COAST
OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 28N47W AND
26N52W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE 33N50W 31N57W STATIONARY FRONT.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF
17N ALONG 55W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 52W AND
56W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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