[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241751
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N52W TO 6N52W MOVING W 15-20 KT.
WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY
THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE WAVE HAS MOVED W OF
THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE E ATLC. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N65W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 10N65W MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW
AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED BY THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE N PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS
BROKEN OFF AND IS ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN...SEE BELOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
INLAND OVER VENEZUELA.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 13N17W AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N24W TO 7N30W WHERE THE
ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N38W TO 4N49W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE
MONSOON TROUGH BETWEEN 19W-25W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH EMBEDDED
CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN
25W-36W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE N GULF TO 28N91W GENERATING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N BETWEEN 91W-94W. AN UPPER RIDGE
IS ANCHORED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 25N83W COVERING THE THE E GULF
AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N E OF 87W TO
INLAND OVER FLORIDA AND  THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. A
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC ALONG THE N GULF COAST TO
TEXAS WITH A 1018 MB HIGH LOCATED ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO
BETWEEN TAMPICO AND TUXPAN GIVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRI.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FOCUS THIS AFTERNOON IS THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE
NE CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 13N66W OVER E PUERTO RICO TO 20N65W.
THIS TROUGH DEVELOPED FROM THE N PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE
THAT IS FURTHER S OVER SOUTH AMERICA. THIS SURFACE TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY OVER PUERTO RICO AND NORTHWARD. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W COVERING THE AREA N OF 12N W OF 79W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 82W-84W. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED ALONG THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS TO OVER HAITI NEAR 21N71W
INCLUDING SHOWERS OVER JAMAICA. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W ALONG 11N80W
TO ACROSS COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH TO INLAND OVER
PANAMA. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN FRESH TO STRONG
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN
THE E CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE W THROUGH TUE BEFORE DISSIPATING OVER
SOUTH AMERICA. A SECOND TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE LESSER
ANTILLES TUE MORNING THEN MOVE W-NW REACHING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
WED THEN CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THU AND FRI AS IT
WEAKENS.

HISPANIOLA...
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS DRAWING MOISTURE ALOFT
OVER THE ISLAND AND COUPLED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING WILL
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANCE OF
MOISTURE MOVING FROM E TO W ACROSS THE ISLAND STARTING ON WED AS
A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES INTO THE E CARIBBEAN AND STEADILY
INCREASES THROUGH FRI AS THE WAVE MOVES OVER HISPANIOLA THU INTO
FRI. THIS WILL INCREASE THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WED
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LOW COVERS THE W ATLC W OF 70W AND IS CENTERED NEAR
25N74W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21N-28N BETWEEN 71W-77W INCLUDING THE ISLANDS BETWEEN THE TURKS
AND CAICOS TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS N OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE
CENTRAL ATLC. THIS IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO GENERATE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 18N-
25N BETWEEN 58W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF SURFACE HIGHS
LOCATED N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A LARGE PLUME OF SAHARAN DUST
COVERS THE ATLC FROM 10N-20N E OF 50W AND N OF 20N E OF 30W.
SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE ATLC THROUGH FRI.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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