[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241044
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 12N62W INTO VENEZUELA TO 04N63W
MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. A LOW HUMIDITY ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES AT
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS HINDERING CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY
OF THE WAVE AXIS. WITH A MORE DEFINED WAVE SIGNAL AT THE 700 MB
LEVEL...THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO EXIT COLOMBIA EARLY ON TUESDAY
WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE THAT MAY ENHANCE CONVECTION IN THE
IMMEDIATE SURROUNDINGS OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 13N49W TO 05N53W MOVING W-NW AT
5-10 KT. PRETTY DISCERNIBLE AT 700 MB IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...A SUBTLE INCREASE IN AREAL
MOISTURE AT THE LOWER LEVELS COINCIDES WITH AN AUGMENT IN
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING
WITHIN 130 NM WEST OF THE AXIS N OF 10N.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO 07N20W 06N25W. THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR 06N26W AND IT
CONTINUES TO 07N35W 08N42W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXES
BETWEEN 15W-28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 70 NM
EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 29W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SURFACE RIDGING AND RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT
CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE GULF THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
BANKING LOW LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINES AND
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING GENERATED WITHIN 100 NM
OF IT AS DEPICTED IN RADAR IMAGERY. SIMILAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
IS OBSERVED IN THE SE GULF FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 27N EAST
OF 85W. THESE AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE BEING SUPPORTED BY UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A NARROW/ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN
THE CENTRAL GULF AND A RIDGE EAST OF 86W. IN THE REMAINDER OF
THE GULF CLEAR SKIES AND FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES SUPPORTED BY THE
PRESENCE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE LEVELS
THESE WEATHER PATTERNS IN THE LOWER AND UPPER LEVELS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL UNTIL LATE TUESDAY.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL WEAKNESS CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM LOUISIANA TO
THE WEST CARIBBEAN WHILE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS OVER
THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN SIDES OF THE BASIN. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED FEATURES IS ENHANCING
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...SW TO
JAMAICA TO NICARAGUA. CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE
OBSERVED SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN THE COASTLINES OF PANAMA AND
COLOMBIA. THESE ARE MAINLY ASSOCIATED TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
FROM THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF A WAVE AXIS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS VENEZUELA EXTENDS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN
EAST OF 63W SOUTH OF 13N...HOWEVER NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED
WITH IT. A SURFACE TROUGH IS TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO ALONG
19N63W TO 14N63W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM WEST OF THE
TROUGH AXIS N OF 17N. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER AND WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
LEVELS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WHICH IS SUPPRESSING
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. TRADEWINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT ABOUNDS
IN THE REGION WITH STRONGER TRADEWINDS UP TO 25 KT PRESENT OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN DUE TO A TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE
COURSE OF 48 HOURS THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY OVER VENEZUELA IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN CARRYING A
SURGE OF MOISTURE WITH IT. THE TRAILING WAVE CURRENTLY WITH AXIS
NEAR 51W IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES BY LATE
TUESDAY BRINGING LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH IT. SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED SINCE TUE AFTERNOON.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY LOWER LEVELS DRY CONDITIONS OVER DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
AND MODERATE MOISTURE OVER HAITI WITH LIGHT TRADEWINDS OF 5-10
KT. CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO JUST ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE
ISLAND SUPPORTED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AS DISCUSSED IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA SECTION. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
TO A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY EAST OF PUERTO RICO ARE EXPECTED
TO DRIFT WESTWARD WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS DURING MONDAY.
THESE SHOWERS WILL BE ENHANCED IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
SURFACE DAYLIGHT HEATING.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 13N FROM A
SET OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOW AN OVERALL DRY ENVIRONMENT AT
THE LOWER LEVELS WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER BASIN WIDE.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

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