[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 202328
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SINCE MAKING LANDFALL...BARRY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION. T.D. BARRY IS CENTERED NEAR 19.6N 97.7W...OR ABOUT
85 NM WNW OF VERACRUZ MEXICO...MOVING WEST AT 6 KT. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
DETERIORATE...AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-
23N BETWEEN 94W-100W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO FROM 17N-18N BETWEEN 92W-101W. TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO ARE EXPECTED. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22
KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA FROM 16N19W TO 5N20W
MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH A SMALL SURGE
IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THERE IS ALSO A CLEARING IN THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 21W-24W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 14N39W TO 6N40W MOVING WEST NEAR 20
KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTION
IS LIMITED TO THE ITCZ REGION WHERE ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 37W-43W.

ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE IS FROM 23N70W TO 14N73W EXTENDING ACROSS
HISPANIOLA MOVING WNW AT 15 KT. THE WAVE ALIGNS WITH AN AREA OF
MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.
THE WAVE IS ALSO BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
NORTH OF HAITI NEAR 20N72W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 68W-74W COVERING MUCH OF HISPANIOLA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 66W-
70W. THE WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER EASTERN CUBA IN 24 HOURS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL AFRICA NEAR 10N14W TO
06N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 06N20W TO 05N28W TO 07N36W. IT
RESUMES WEST OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 07N40W TO 06N54W. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 23W-
31W AS WELL AS WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 44W-54W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION BARRY IS NOW INLAND OVER MEXICO. SEE SPECIAL
FEATURES ABOVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUE IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SOUTH OF 23N WEST OF 94W WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUING EAST OF 94W TO THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF AROUND
A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 28N91W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH
OF THE BASIN. WINDS ARE LIGHT AND ANTI-CYCLONIC AROUND THE HIGH
CENTER. DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER RIDGE ALONG 94W IS HELPING
MAINTAIN THE FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH
IS SINKING INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG THE GULF COAST FROM 30N81W TO 30N90W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 29N EAST OF 94W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
BARRY IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS...BUT
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE SW GULF. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE OVER HISPANIOLA CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER IN THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N72W IS
HELPING ENHANCE ACTIVITY NEAR THE WAVE. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 68W-75W. SIMILAR
ACTIVITY IS ALSO OVER JAMAICA AND SOUTHERN CUBA...BUT MAY BE
MORE LIKELY CONNECTED TO DAYTIME HEATING THAN THE WAVE/UPPER
LOW. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO THROUGHOUT MUCH OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS CONNECTED TO THE
MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COSTA RICA TO A 1007 MB LOW OVER
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER NORTHERN
COLOMBIA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KT IS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN
THE FLOW. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WNW
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. IT SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPACT EASTERN
CUBA WITHIN THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.

HISPANIOLA...
THE COMBINATION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT HISPANIOLA.
THIS ACTIVITY BEGAN RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY AND HAS CONTINUED
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS
THE WAVE MOVES WEST. HISPANIOLA SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE WAVE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CONTINUED
RAINFALL INCREASES THE RISK OF FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NE GULF COAST CONTINUES INTO
THE ATLC TO NEAR 32N78W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MAINLY WEST OF 77W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER HISPANIOLA INTO
THE ATLC SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 24N
BETWEEN 68W-72W...AND FROM 26N-38N BETWEEN 67W-71W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 21N-26N BETWEEN 64W-70W. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N72W IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N52W TO 25N52W...BUT IS NOT
CAUSING ANY ACTIVE WEATHER. THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS
DOMINATED BY BROAD SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED BY A 1033 MB AZORES
HIGH. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 58W. A SECOND UPPER
LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 29N46W SUPPORTING A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS NEAR ITS VICINITY. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE IS
ALONG 36W FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 27W. A STABLE DRY
AIRMASS COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC INDICATED BY THE LARGE
AREA OF DUST THAT EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA AROUND THE
TROPICAL WAVES TO NEAR 50W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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