[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 200604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BARRY AT 20/0600 UTC
IS NEAR 19.6N 96.1W...MOVING WESTWARD 5 KNOTS. THE
POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 24 NM
TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THE
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST
WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE
USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST
TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 85W...
INCLUDING IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH
OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
94W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM GUATEMALA TO 23N
BETWEEN 85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
100W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS WAS
0.37 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N32W
12N33W 8N34W MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF
THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE
IS ALONG 66W/67W TO THE SOUTH OF 22N...MOVING
WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 80W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 22N BETWEEN 56W AND
70W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 17N TO 20N
BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL
FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC FOR
GUADELOUPE WAS 0.60 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 12N17W...TO 9N20W AND 8N24W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 8N32W 8N35W 7N44W...
TO NORTHWESTERN FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N54W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N
BETWEEN 13W AND 16W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 16W AND 19W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST...ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. IT EVENTUALLY
PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW SPIRALS AWAY FROM THE AREA OF T.S. BARRY.
SOME OF THIS WIND FLOW MERGES WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW FROM TEXAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN
SUBSIDENCE...APPEARING IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...
COVERS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N63W 28N72W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG
27N/28N...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N87W 27N91W...AND 25N97W IN THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ALONG THE U.S.A. GULF OF
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL STORM BARRY. EXPECT TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN 30 NM OF CENTER...EXCEPT
WITHIN 70 NM OF THE CENTER IN THE NORTHEASTERN
QUADRANT. SEA HEIGHTS 12 FEET OR GREATER WILL BE
WITHIN 90 NM IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE...AND WITHIN
30 NM IN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE...WITH SEAS TO 15 FT.
EXPECT WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 KNOTS TO 33 KNOTS
AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 12 FEET ELSEWHERE OVER
FORECAST WATERS WITHIN 180 NM OF CENTER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE
BERMUDA-TO-HISPANIOLA-TO-NORTHERN COLOMBIA TROUGH
COVERS THAT PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO
THE EAST OF 80W. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW THAT IS
MOVING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SOUTHEASTWARD
IS PART OF THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS
SPIRALLING AWAY FROM T.S. BARRY. MIDDLE LEVEL
EASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 15N TO 19N TO THE WEST
OF 80W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND COSTA RICA...ALONG 9N/10N...BETWEEN 75W
AND 86W...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE WEST OF 75W IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ACROSS
COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 8N TO THE WEST OF 74W...AND
IN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11.5N TO 18N
BETWEEN 70W AND 82W. EXPECT 20 KNOT OR LESS WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 75W
AND 83W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST
OF 85W...INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
BERMUDA...TO A 25N68W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
ACROSS HISPANIOLA...TO 15N72W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TOWARD NORTHERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N TO 22N
BETWEEN 56W AND 70W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 22N TO 32N
BETWEEN 59W AND 72W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. THE 24-HOUR
RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 20/0000 UTC
FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.60 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED
TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND IT WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 24 TO 30 HOURS OF
THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE WESTWARD...REPLACED BY A RIDGE. THE 500 MB GFS
FORECAST SHOWS THAT AN INVERTED TROUGH WILL COVER
HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE NEXT 48 HOUR
TIME PERIOD. THE TROUGH MOVES WESTWARD...REPLACED BY
SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE GFS MODEL FOR 250 MB SHOWS
THAT A TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 27N44W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 34N BETWEEN 33W AND
53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 46W/47W FROM 24N TO
30N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 26N TO 29N
BETWEEN 42W AND 44W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N23W
TO A 24N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N29W
AND 13N31W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 30N63W 28N72W...CROSSING FLORIDA ALONG
27N/28N...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS
NEAR 28N87W 27N91W...AND 25N97W IN THE WEST CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N31W...TO 27N30W...
23N28W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND
73W. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 60W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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