[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 200238
TCDAT2

TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1000 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

THE CENTER OF BARRY HAS BEEN VERY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING.
LATE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES AND EXTRAPOLATION FROM THE
EARLIER ARICRAFT FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF A BURST OF CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED AROUND 0000
UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS INCREASED TO 40 KT ON THE 0000 UTC
INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...AND WAS BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA
AND A 33-KT SUSTAINED WIND OBSERVATION AT SACRIFICE ISLAND...WHICH
AT THE TIME...WAS STILL LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE CENTER AND
STRONGEST WINDS.  A FEW OTHER OBSERVING SITES IN THE STATE OF
VERACRUZ HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS IN THE 32 TO 38 KT RANGE SINCE
THIS AFTERNOON.

BARRY APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT.
THE CYCLONE IS BEING STEERED BY A NARROW RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...AND A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH LANDFALL.  SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND THURSDAY MORNING.  AFTER LANDFALL
WEAKENING WILL OCCUR...AND THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE
OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO IN A DAY OR SO.

THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH BARRY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
THAT COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES OVER A
LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  20/0300Z 19.6N  95.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  20/1200Z 19.6N  96.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  21/0000Z 19.5N  97.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
 36H  21/1200Z 19.5N  98.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN


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