[Tropical] Public Tropical Cyclone Advisory

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WTNT32 KNHC 191757
TCPAT2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER   9A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
100 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...RECONNAISSANCE PLANE CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUNTA EL LAGARTO TO BARRA DE NAUTLA MEXICO

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------

AT 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO
WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 95.1 WEST. THE
DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 10 MPH...16 KM/H. A
GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
LATER TODAY AND THURSDAY.  ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
REACH THE COAST IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  THERE IS A STRONG LIKELIHOOD THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL BECOME
A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY.  WEAKENING WILL OCCUR AFTER THE
CENTER CROSSES THE COAST ON THURSDAY. AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE DEPRESSION.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA BY EARLY THURSDAY.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...400 PM CDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA



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