[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 191148
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1140 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AT 19/1200 UTC
IS NEAR 19.4N 94.0W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
8 KNOTS. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS ABOUT 85
MI...140 KM NNE OF COATZACOALCOS MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS
ARE 30 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR
ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 83W...
INCLUDING IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH
OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 19N TO 21N BETWEEN
94W AND 96W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM GUATEMALA TO 23N
BETWEEN 85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
100W. NUMEROUS STRONG IS ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 99W AND 100W. THE
24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS WAS
0.37 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 27W/28W
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF
THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS MOVING THROUGH VENEZUELA
HAS BEEN DROPPED FROM THE ANALYSIS BECAUSE IT HAS
DISSIPATED. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN ADDED TO
THE 19/0600 UTC MAP ANALYSIS. THE WAVE IS ALONG
62W/63W TO THE SOUTH OF 21N...MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO
15 KNOTS. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN EDGE
OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHOSE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE
CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG...THAT ALSO IS RELATED
TO THE TROUGH...IS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND 65W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM
10N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM PUERTO RICO
TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE MONA PASSAGE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N15W TO 8N25W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N25W TO 7N28W 4N40W 3N44W AND 3N48W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N
TO 8N BETWEEN 37W AND 41W...AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN
50W AND 60W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N TO THE
EAST OF 50W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 14N100W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 21N97W
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
23N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPEARING IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N83W 25N90W 22N98W.
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE THAT IS RELATED TO T.D. TWO.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N60W 26N72W...CROSSING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 26N91W
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF COAST.

LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN EXAS IN PALACIOS
AND IN BAY CITY. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS
BEING REPORTED AT THE HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT. MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED FROM BEAUMONT
TEXAS TO LAKE CHARLES AND IN NEW IBERIA IN LOUISIANA.
THE SLIDELL GENERAL AIRPORT IS REPORTING A MIDDLE
LEVEL CLOUD CEILING...AFTER THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS
OF FAIR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET.

THE VISIBILITY IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI HAS BEEN
CHANGING DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE VISIBILITY
WAS 10 MILES AT 19/0553 UTC. IT HAS GONE FROM 10 MILES
TO 5 MILES...AND THEN TO 2 MILES OR LESS FOR SOME
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOT UP TO 7 MILES AT 19/0953 UTC...
AND THEN IT LOWERED TO 2 MILES OR LESS AT 19/1037 UTC.

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN THE U.S.A. GULF OF
MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION
KGBK. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEAS THAT ACCOMPANY
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.
SOME OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 22N66W 10N65W TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
PANAMA...AND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...ALONG 9N/10N...
BETWEEN 74W AND 86W INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO
9N BETWEEN 72W AND 76W IN COLOMBIA...AND FROM 3N TO 7N
BETWEEN 77W AND 80W IN COASTAL SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA...
AND TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF PANAMA WITHIN A 30 NM
RADIUS OF 7N82W AND BETWEEN 81W AND 82W FROM 9N TO 10N.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 66W
AND 81W. EXPECT ALSO EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 16N TO 18.5N INCLUDING IN THE
GULF OF HONDURAS.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
22N66W CENTER...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W...TO THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. THE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS
NORTHWARD FROM THE 22N66W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 28N65W
AND BEYOND 32N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
NUMEROUS STRONG IS FROM 15N TO 21N BETWEEN 59W AND
65W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W...AND FROM
PUERTO RICO TO 20N BETWEEN 65W AND THE MONA PASSAGE.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING
AT 19/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE WAS 0.13 OF AN INCH...
ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST PATTERN STARTS WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES WESTWARD AND ENGULFS
HISPANIOLA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD
SLIGHTLY DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 250 MB
TROUGH COVERS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 28N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N42W.
THE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE
28N42W CENTER TO 32N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 24N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N32W AND
11N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N53W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N60W 26N72W...CROSSING THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 26N91W
IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE LOWER
TEXAS GULF COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N27W IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N21W AND 24N16W NEAR THE COAST
OF THE WESTERN SAHARA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W
AND 62W. EXPECT 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM 14N
TO 20N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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