[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 190557
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AT 19/0300 UTC
IS NEAR 18.9N 92.7W...MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
10 KNOTS. THE POSITION OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
ABOUT 54 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN
IN MEXICO...AND ABOUT 105 NM TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST OF
COATZACOALCOS IN MEXICO. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/
WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR
ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION
DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND
INTENSITY.

BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF
OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN 84W AND 98W...
INCLUDING IN MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE NORTH
OF NICARAGUA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG IN WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN GUATEMALA NEAR ITS
BORDER WITH SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND WITHIN 60 NM TO
90 NM OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
19N91W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH
OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 77W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT
19/0000 UTC FOR TEGUCIGALPA HONDURAS WAS 0.37 OF AN
INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND
PRECIPITATION TABLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W/27W
TO THE SOUTH OF 15N MOVING WEST 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF
THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W TO
THE SOUTH OF 13N...MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 20 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG THAT IS
BETWEEN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LAKE MARACAIBO
IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND THE BORDER WITH
COLOMBIA MAY BE RELATED TO THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL
SENEGAL NEAR 15N17W TO 9N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 9N24W TO 7N29W 4N44W...INTO EXTREME NORTHERN
BRAZIL NEAR ITS BORDER WITH FRENCH GUINEA...AND
TO 4N55W IN SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY
STRONG FROM 4N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN NEAR 14N100W.
A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 21N97W
ALONG THE MEXICO COAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO
23N96W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER
AIR IN SUBSIDENCE...APPEARING IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N83W 25N93W 22N97W.
THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO IS COVERED BY
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE THAT IS RELATED TO T.D. TWO.
BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY TO
NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO
ELSEWHERE...AWAY FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N50W IN THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 28N59W 27N71W...CROSSING THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N84W IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD
THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS REPORTED AT THE
HOUSTON HOBBY AIRPORT. A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS
OBSERVED AT THE SLIDELL GENERAL AIRPORT.
A THUNDERSTORM IS BEING REPORTED IN PASCAGOULA
MISSISSIPPI. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING
REPORTED AT THE MOBILE REGIONAL AIRPORT...AND A LOW
CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED IN GULF SHORES...
IN ALABAMA. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING
REPORTED IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM THE AREA
OF VALPARAISO...DESTIN...AND MARY ESTHER NORTHWARD
AND WESTWARD. PUNTA GORDA FLORIDA IS REPORTING
RAINSHOWERS WITH 2 MILES OF VISIBILITY. RAIN COVERS
THE AREA FROM FORT MYERS TO NAPLES. LOW CLOUD
CEILINGS COVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION
KDLP. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN
12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO AT 19/0300 UTC...
1007 MB...NEAR 18.9N 92.4W. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEEDS ARE 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. EXPECT
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS OVER
FORECAST GULF WATERS THAT ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE
TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE AREA. SOME OF THE WIND FLOW IS MOVING
AWAY FROM THE AREA OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO.
SOME OF THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE 22N66W 10N65W TROUGH.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHERN COLOMBIA
NEAR 9N73W...TO 8N78W IN EASTERN PANAMA...TO 10N84W
IN COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 10N86W INTO THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W IN COASTAL
SECTIONS OF COLOMBIA...AND FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W
AND 75W IN COLOMBIA...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF
9N72W IN EXTREME NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN
SOUTHWESTERN LAKE MARACAIBO AND THE VENEZUELA BORDER
WITH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
7N TO 11N BETWEEN 79W AND 85W FROM THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA TO COSTA RICA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 25 TO 30 KNOT NORTHEAST TO EAST
WINDS AND 8 TO 12 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N
BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. EXPECT EAST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS
AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 18N BETWEEN 67W
AND 82W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 8 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 83W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 22N66W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
22N66W CENTER...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 14N67W...TO THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA NEAR 10N65W. THE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM
NORTHWARD FROM THE 22N66W CYCLONIC CENTER TO 28N65W
AND BEYOND 32N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 56W AND
60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
ALSO IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN
60W AND 70W...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH
OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL
TOTAL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 19/0000 UTC FOR
GUADELOUPE WAS 0.13 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE
PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY
WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GULF OF MEXICO
RIDGE. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE AREA
DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.
THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST PATTERN STARTS WITH
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF
OF THE FIRST 24 HOURS OF THE PERIOD. AN INVERTED
TROUGH EVENTUALLY MOVES WESTWARD AND ENGULFS
HISPANIOLA. THE INVERTED TROUGH SHIFTS WESTWARD
SLIGHTLY DURING THE REST OF THE PERIOD. A 250 MB
TROUGH COVERS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST
NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 28N42W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 21N42W.
THE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS NORTHWESTWARD FROM THE 28N42W
CENTER TO 32N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE
NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
A 24N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N32W AND
11N35W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N50W IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...TO 28N59W 27N71W...CROSSING THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE BAHAMAS...TO 24N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER
OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF
COAST.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N23W IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 26N14W NEAR THE COAST OF
THE WESTERN SAHARA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR
MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 20N BETWEEN 48W AND 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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