[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 190248
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION HAS EMERGED OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE THIS EVENING.  DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...CONVECTION HAS
REDEVELOPED NEAR THE CENTER IN A BAND OVER THE NORTHEAST AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CIRCULATION.  A SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE FROM TAFB SUPPORTS MAINTAINING AN INITIAL INTENSITY
OF 25 KT.

THE DEPRESSION HAS SHOWN NO SIGNS OF SLOWING DOWN.  THE INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
INSISTS THAT THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL DECREASE AND
BEND WESTWARD AS IT APPROACHES THE COAST OF MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY.
THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AT 12 AND 24 HOURS DUE TO A MORE NORTHWARD INITIAL
POSITION.  AFTER THAT TIME...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR
TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.

THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE
SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.  AS A RESULT...THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE DOES NOT SHOW MUCH STRENGTHENING.  THE NHC
FORECAST CALLS FOR SOME SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION AND ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOT EXPLICITLY FORECAST...THE DEPRESSION COULD ATTAIN TROPICAL
STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL IN MEXICO. IN FACT...BASED ON THE NHC
INTENSITY FORECAST AND TYPICAL NHC FORECAST ERRORS...THERE IS ABOUT
A 40 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE CYCLONE BEING A TROPICAL STORM IN 24
HOURS. BECAUSE OF THAT POSSIBILITY...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR A PORTION OF THE COAST OF
SOUTHERN MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...
THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/0300Z 18.9N  92.7W   25 KT  30 MPH
 12H  19/1200Z 19.2N  94.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  20/0000Z 19.2N  95.2W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  20/1200Z 19.0N  96.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 48H  21/0000Z 19.0N  97.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  22/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN



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