[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 181801
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CENTER LOCATED NEAR NEAR 17.9N 90.0W AT
18/1500Z AND MOVING W-NW AT 7 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1009 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF BELIZE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WILL BE MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND
MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS. PLEASE READ THE
LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. PLEASE REMEMBER ALSO
THAT FORECAST WINDS IN AND NEAR ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES SHOULD
BE USED WITH CAUTION DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN FORECAST
TRACK...SIZE...AND INTENSITY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 12N24W TO 03N22W AND MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KT. THE METEOSAT-
9 SAL TRACKING PRODUCT SHOWS MODERATE DRY AIR ENGULFING THE N-NW
PORTIONS OF THE AXIS. HOWEVER...THE PSEUDO NATURAL COLOR IMAGERY
SHOW THAT A DUST OUTBREAK IS SPREADING OVER THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY TO THE WAVE PORTION N OF THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS WHERE DENSER BROWNISH HAZE IS OBSERVED. THE WARM AND
DRY AIR SURROUNDING THIS WAVE IS LIMITING CONVECTION.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN INTO VENEZUELA WITH
AXIS ALONG 14N66W TO 06N66W AND IT IS MOVING WEST AT 10-15 KT.
OVERALL MODERATE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS WITHIN THE WAVE
ENVIRONMENT AND NO CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AT THIS
TIME.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL OF AFRICA NEAR
10N14W TO 07N21W 05N28W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 05N28W TO
05N37W 05N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N
EAST OF 23W AS WELL AS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 39W-43W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE AZORES HIGH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW TO THE GULF WHICH IS
PROVIDING RETURN FLOW OF 10-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. THE TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO WITH CENTER CURRENTLY JUST N OF GUATEMALA IN THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA IS ADVECTING MOISTURE TO THE SE GULF AS WELL
AS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. CONTINUOUS MODERATE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED
TO THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ACROSS
BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH
ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES AND MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES.
THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A W-NW TRACK AND MOVE OVER
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATES RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 4 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY
S OF 25N WEST OF 91W. WHILE THE SYSTEM EMERGES TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD NE OF THE
BASIN WHICH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...N OF 24N AND ACROSS THE GULF DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE
AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TWO CURRENTLY JUST N OF GUATEMALA CONTINUES GENERATING SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 85W.
SIMILARLY...DEEP LAYER HIGH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON
TROUGH AXIS IS ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN...WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE
PANAMA COASTLINE BETWEEN 79W-82W. A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS
OVER A PORTION OF THE SE CARIBBEAN INTO VENEZUELA. ITS AXIS IS
ALONG 14N66W TO 06N66W AND CURRENTLY THERE IS NO CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED TO IT. NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS SPREADS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF 15N EAST OF
65W. A COMBINATION OF HIGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE OBSERVED IN THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...20 KT TRADEWINDS AND UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FROM A LOW N OF PUERTO RICO AND RIDGING TO THE
WEST AND EAST OF THE ISLANDS IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION. THE
WAVE WILL CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK AND WILL BE ALONG COLOMBIA
IN 24 HOURS AND OVER THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE DURING THIS PERIOD.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY VERY DRY AIR OVER LA HISPANIOLA...WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER HAITI. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AS WELL AS LOW MOISTURE
FROM THE SURFACE TO THE MIDDLE LEVELS WILL KEEP MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EXCEPT IN THE AFTERNOON WHERE
SURFACE HEATING COULD INDUCE SOME SHOWERS. HOWEVER...AS THE
TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN BY
THURSDAY...MOISTURE WILL BE CARRIED OUT TO LA HISPANIOLA AND
PUERTO RICO WHICH WILL ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE WEST ATLC EXTENDING ALONG
30N63W TO 24N67W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO IT.
OTHERWISE...BROAD SURFACE RIDGING FROM THE AZORES HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 38N30W SPREADS OVER THE ENTIRE BASIN N OF 14N. DEEP LAYER
DRY AIR IS KEEPING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE BASIN.


FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

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