[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171749
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.2N 87.6W AT 17/1500
UTC OR 50 NM E OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE MOVING WNW AT 11 KT.
ESTIMATED MIMIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE AND
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE
FROM 11N82W TO 15N84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-
21N BETWEEN 82W-90W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N58W TO 09N57W MOVING W-NW AT 10-15
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE AND HAS LARGELY BEEN EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ TRACKING WESTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS. AN
EARLIER MORNING ASCAT PASS AROUND 17/1306 UTC SHOWED BROAD LOW-
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE WITH STRONG NE
WINDS LOCATED PRIMARILY N OF 10N BETWEEN 46W-60W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 08N-11N BETWEEN 55W-61W.
IT IS ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL TRACK W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS TOWARDS THE SE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ABC ISLANDS.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO
08N23W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
08N23W TO 06N32W TO 06N42W TO 08N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 15W-26W...AND FROM 09N-12N
BETWEEN 43W-55W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF
90W WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF
ALONG 27N. THIS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC REGIME IS PROVIDING MOST OF
THE GULF WITH STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CLEAR SKIES. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE SW NORTH
ATLC REGION FROM NORTHERN FLORIDA TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF
MEXICO IS FURTHER PROMOTING THE FAIR WEATHER. THE ONE EXCEPTION
TO FAIR WEATHER IS A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF
THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND VICINITY N OF 29N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
LOOKING AHEAD...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO CENTERED IN THE GULF OF
HONDURAS IS EXPECTED TO TRACK W-NW AND SKIRT THE SW GULF EARLY
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WITH IMPENDING LAND INTERACTION OVER
THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AND LIMITED TIME OVER GULF WATERS
THEREAFTER...ONLY SLIGHT STRENGTHENING TO A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM IS FORECAST PRIOR TO LANDFALL ON THE EAST-CENTRAL MEXICO
COAST.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN CARIBBEAN IS TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO MENTIONED ABOVE. IT IS LOCATED ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED
NEAR 13N80W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE AMPLE SUPPORT TO SUSTAIN CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEPRESSION AS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING FROM 11N-
22N WEST OF 82W. THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY IS FOCUSED ALONG A LINE
FROM 11N82W TO 16N84W NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. TO THE SOUTH
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG
09N PROVIDING FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S
OF 10N. ELSEWHERE OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN...NW
FLOW ALOFT AND OVERALL GENERAL WEAK SUBSIDENCE REMAINS IN PLACE
BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE MENTIONED PREVIOUSLY...AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N65W.
CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR OVERALL THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER EASTERN PUERTO RICO AND THE
US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS...INCLUDING THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS N
OF 17N BETWEEN 63W-66W.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY TRANQUIL ACROSS THE ISLAND
THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W IN
THE SW NORTH ATLC. ASIDE FROM A FEW PASSING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES RELATIVELY DRY AIR ALOFT COTNINUES
TO PROVIDE A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHILE THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PERSIST...AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN PEAK DAYTIME
HEATING AND INSTABILITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N65W
TO A BASE EAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N68W. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGHING HAS STRETCHED TO THE NORTHEAST
AND DISSIPATED OVER THE PAST 24 TO 36 HOURS...HOWEVER REMNANT
WEAK SURFACE TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM 32N59W TO 25N71W. WHILE THE
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS WEAK...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
IS PRIMARILY THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
OVER A LARGE AREA FROM 17N-33N BETWEEN 58W-66W. OTHERWISE...THE
SW NORTH ATLC N OF 25N W OF 66W REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET THIS
AFTERNOON. OF NOTE...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OFF
THE COAST OF FLORIDA IN THE VICINITY OF 29N79W. FARTHER EAST...
THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED
NEAR 40N29W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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