[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 171152
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 85W/86W FROM
13N IN NICARAGUA TO 20N IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 13N IN CENTRAL AMERICA TO 24N IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 80W AND 95W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...CURVING
ACROSS FLORIDA TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE BAHAMAS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 15N TO 18N
BETWEEN 83W AND BELIZE. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INCLUDING ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA FROM NICARAGUA TO GUATEMALA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 54W/55W TO THE SOUTH OF
10N...REACHING CENTRAL SURINAME. THE WAVE IS MOVING WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W
AND 57W IN THE ITCZ...AND IN NORTHERN COASTAL GUYANA. IT IS
ANTICIPATED THE WAVE WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. THE FORECAST IS THAT THE WAVE WILL REACH THE
SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND INTERACT EVENTUALLY WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. THE CYCLONIC CENTER IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO
RICO...NEAR 23N65W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W
TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO 4N34W AND 4N45W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N
BETWEEN 16W AND 23W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM
3N TO 7N TO THE EAST OF 50W...AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND
57W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE GULF
OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF 27N82W 24N91W 19N95W.
THIS AREA IS AWAY FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC OUTFLOW THAT IS RELATED
TO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE.

BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 25N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N65W TO 29N76W...TO AN EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO 1018 MB
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N84W...TO 26N94W IN THE WEST
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO.

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE
MIDDLE TEXAS COAST SOUTHWARD. ELLINGTON AIRPORT IN HOUSTON IS
REPORTING A HIGH CLOUD CEILING. MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS ARE
BEING REPORTED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION IN NEW ORLEANS
LOUISIANA. A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS IS BEING REPORTED AT
GULFPORT IN MISSISSIPPI. THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEING REPORTED AT
MARY ESTHER...VALPARAISO...AND DESTIN IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING OBSERVED AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION
NEAR MILTON FLORIDA IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...AND AT MARIANNA.
A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE OR LESS WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED IN
PERRY FLORIDA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN
THE TAMPA FLORIDA METROPOLITAN AREA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT
OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N
TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE  OBSERVED AT THE FOLLOWING ICAO
STATIONS...KVBS AND KEIR. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 80W. PART OF
THE NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW THAT IS ORIGINATING FROM THE 85W/86W TROPICAL WAVE.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N51W 23N65W...TO
14N66W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...FROM
THE AREA OF LAKE MARACAIBO...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO 9N80W
IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
STRONG FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 74W AND 80W. THIS AREA COVERS
PARTS OF COLOMBIA AND THE SOUTH-WESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...INCLUDING THE COASTAL WATERS ON BOTH SIDES OF PANAMA TO
THE EAST OF 80W.

EXPECT SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM
15N TO 19N BETWEEN 79W AND 87W. THE WAVE POSITION IS ALONG 85W.
EXPECT NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 15N TO 18.5N TO THE WEST OF 80W.

HISPANIOLA...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N62W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 27N64W TO 23N67W...THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE TO 17N68W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. HISPANIOLA IS JUST ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE REACHING THE
EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE
AREA OF AN INVERTED TROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS OR SO.
THE 500 MB GFS FORECAST IS FOR A TROUGH/WEAK CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER TO DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN PART OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TROUGH SHIFTS EASTWARD ON TOP OF PUERTO
RICO...AND THEN AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE BY THE END OF 48 HOURS. A TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE MONA
PASSAGE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOUR PERIOD AT 250 MB. BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO
22N49W 13N54W AND 10N58W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO
30N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N62W TO 29N65W AND
27N67W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 58W AND 67W. RAINSHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM THE EASTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC TO 32N BETWEEN 57W AND 70W.

AN EASTERN ATLANTIC MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N13W TO 23N20W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT
IS NEAR 34N65W TO 31N76W...ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG 28N/29N...INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N94W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N51W 23N65W...TO
14N66W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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