[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 160559
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN JUN 16 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N77W ACROSS
JAMAICA TO 11N80W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
BROAD AREA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE THAT COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS
ALSO BENEATH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE WHICH IS RESPONSIBLE FOR ANY
ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 12N16W AND CONTINUES TO 9N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N29W 7N44W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 5N53W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 7N-11N E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA AND
WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 21W-50W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE NE GULF EXTENDING FROM NEAR
TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA TO 26N84W AND CONTINUES TO SUPPLY LIFT FOR
THE TAIL END OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SWEPT THROUGH THE N
GULF YESTERDAY. STATIONARY FRONT AT 16/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM
ACROSS FLORIDA S OF TAMPA ALONG 28N84W TO INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE JUST E OF APALACHICOLA BAY WHERE IT CONTINUES
INLAND N OF MOBILE ALABAMA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE NE OF FRONT OVER THE GULF
WATERS AND INLAND OVER FLORIDA. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN/YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT
IS MOVING W AND AT 16/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 22N90W TO S MEXICO
NEAR 18N92W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS.
AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE GULF W OF 90W AND ANCHORED OVER SW
MEXICO EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF
LINE FROM 28N88W TO INLAND OVER SE LOUISIANA BEYOND 30N92W. A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA. THIS
IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. THE WEAK STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE TONIGHT. THE
SURFACE RIDGE WILL REMAIN THROUGH THU. THE NORTHERN EXTENSION OF
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS W ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA SUN
AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL MON REACHING THE SW GULF WED INTO THU
WITH LOW POSSIBLY DEVELOPING ALONG THE WAVE S OF 21N.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM 15N-22N W OF 85W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. A
LARGE UPPER HIGH DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED OVER THE S CARIBBEAN ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA AND
EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALSO
EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 11N-18N W OF 78W INCLUDING PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 18N TO OVER HISPANIOLA AND CUBA
BETWEEN 70W-82W INCLUDING JAMAICA. THESE AREAS ENCOMPASS THE
TROPICAL WAVE. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W
CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH MON EXITING THE AREA BY EARLY TUE.

HISPANIOLA...
THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER RIDGE
AS THE TROPICAL WAVE HAS MOVED W OF THE ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC BETWEEN 64W-80W SUPPORTING A
COLD FRONT THAT 16/0300 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N62W AND
CONTINUES ALONG 28N67W TO 26N72W WHERE IT IS WEAKENING AND NEAR
STATIONARY ACROSS THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO OVER THE FLORIDA NEAR
BOCA RATON WHERE IT CONTINUES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N ACROSS
THE MONA PASSAGE TO BEYOND 32N57W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 125 NM
OF LINE FROM HISPANIOLA NEAR 20N71W ALONG 26N65W TO BEYOND
32N60W. HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 32N74W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AND BENIGN UPPER FEATURES
ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR 33N42W AND WITH A WEAK
RIDGE EXTENDING S OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS IS
KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TRANQUIL AGAIN TONIGHT. THE N
PORTION OF THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL BRUSH N CUBA TONIGHT THROUGH
SUN NIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BY
LATER SUN. SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA SUN NIGHT UNTIL TUE THEN SHIFT S TO 28N THROUGH THU AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT PASSES N OF THE AREA TUE NIGHT THROUGH THU.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW


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