[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 152346
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N78W TO 20N77W MOVING W-NW AT 5-10
KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AREA OF DEEP
LAYERED MOISTURE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE HIGHEST
VALUES OF TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER NOTED ON IMAGERY FROM 10N16N
BETWEEN 69W-83W. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO
ROTATE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AS A 1009 MN LOW NEAR
10N81W. AS THIS IS OCCURRING...ENERGY IS ALSO SKIMMING TOWARDS
THE NORTHEAST AS A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE
SW NORTH ATLC REGION. REMAINING ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE W-
NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS BRINGING INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND
PRECIPTATION TO CENTRAL AMERICA AND EVENTUALLY THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN MEXICO BY TUESDAY. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-18N BETWEEN 76W-85W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N15W TO
09N18W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM
09N18W TO 05N31W TO 06N43W TO 04N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-09N BETWEEN 23W-32W. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 32W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY W OF
88W WITH A MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF NEAR
28N91W. THIS OVERALL ATMOSPHERIC REGIME IS PROVIDING THE WESTERN
GULF WITH STABLE AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS EVENING W OF 90W. A
WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 25N89W IS FURTHER
PROMOTING THE FAIR WEATHER. E OF 88W...THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN BECOMES THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH PRIMARY AXIS FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 30N73W
TO OVER CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N80W TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N87W. WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ENERGY CONTINUES TO SLIDE DOWN THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGHING
AND SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA
AND INTO THE NE GULF FROM 28N82W TO NEAR THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA REGION NEAR 29N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS
ARE OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT...AND N OF 27N BETWEEN 87W-
91W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE SE GULF IS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR
25N89W. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE HOWEVER OCCURRING
ALONG THE GULF COAST OF CUBA BETWEEN 83W-85W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE PRIMARY FEATURE ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING IS
THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE ALONG 78W. THE WAVE AT THE
SURFACE IS EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N87W THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF MOIST
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW BETWEEN THE LOW AND AN ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N69W. A WIDE
SWATH OF MOISTURE EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA NE
THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE REGION INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC E OF
72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER A LARGE AREA
OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF 68W TO A LINE FROM EASTERN CUBA
NEAR 21N77W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W. THE STRONGEST
CONVECTION THIS EVENING IS WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND EAST OF
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS...ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN WATERS...
NICARAGUA...AND EASTERN HONDURAS. THE WAVE IS ANTICIPATED TO
DRIFT W-NW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
CONTINUED RAINFALL EXPECTED AND A HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. OTHERWISE...THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
66W IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SUBSIDENCE ALOFT DUE TO THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION. CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIR THIS EVENING
FOR THE LESSER ANTILLES AND ABC ISLANDS.

HISPANIOLA...
CURRENTLY MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT E-NE OVER THE ISLAND
PRIMARILY ORIGINATING FROM A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 78W. WHILE THE
SURFACE FEATURE OF THE WAVE HAS PASSED TO THE WEST...MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC NEAR 25N75W TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 18N87W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE AMPLE
DYNAMICS ALOFT TO GENERATE WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ACROSS THE SURROUNDING ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS THIS EVENING. AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO DRIFT W-NW
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RE-
ESTABLISH ITSELF OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE
MORE USUAL AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DOMINATES OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC
WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N68W TO A BASE NORTH OF THE CENTRAL
CUBA NEAR 23N78W. WHILE MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINS N OF 30N...THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM BERMUDA NEAR 32N65W SW TO 29N70W THEN
WESTWARD TO 28N80W WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. IN
ADDITION...A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COLD FRONT NEAR
29N69W TO 21N75W AND ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT IS PROVIDING THE
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 360 NM
EAST OF THE BOUNDARIES. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALSO NOTED
WEST OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NW BAHAMAS THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...THE SW NORTH ATLC WEST OF
THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS REMAINS FAIRLY QUIET AS THE COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE DIFFUSE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
INTO SUNDAY. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED
BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N41W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
HUFFMAN


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