[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 151806
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDING FROM 21N72W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W. THIS WAVE IS MOVING W-
NW NEAR 10 KT AND IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WHICH
INCREASE S OF 16N AS DEPICTED IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. THE WAVE IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 250 NM
NE OF THE AXIS N OF 19N. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W
WHERE A MAXIMUM OF MOISTURE IS OBSERVED IN THE TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...
THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16 AND CONTINUES TO 10N19W. THE ITCZ AXIS
BEGINS NEAR 09N20W AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W 05N40W 06N47W TO
04N52W. SMALL CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 03N-08N
BETWEEN 23W-29W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-09N
BETWEEN 31W-42W AND ALSO WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS
BETWEEN 43W-52W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA AND EXTENDS INTO
THE EASTERN GULF NEAR 28N82W TO 28N84W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A
STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 28N89W TO 29N94W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 3O NM EITHER SIDE OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BETWEEN 88W-89W AND 83W-85W. LIMITED
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS
WELL AS ACROSS THE GULF IS BEING SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVELS. A 1018 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 25N89W BEING SUPPORTED BY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS ANCHORED OVER MEXICO AND EXTENDING NE TO THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES. THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION INTO
A WARM FRONT LATER TODAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS TOWARDS THE
NE GULF BEFORE DISSIPATING EARLY ON SUNDAY. A NEW HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE NE GULF LATE ON SUNDAY MAINTAINING
RETURN FLOW OF 5-15 KT ACROSS THE BASIN. A TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE AXIS OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 21N72W TO THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE INTO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N76W. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OCCURRING S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W AND 79W. A 1009 MB LOW IS IN THE
SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN EMBEDDED IN THE EAST PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH
AXIS. THIS SURFACE LOW ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
GENERATING NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS
S OF 12N BETWEEN 78W-84W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W
CARIBBEAN W OF 80W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR OVER THIS
REGION WHICH IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 13N67W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AT
THE SURFACE TRADEWINDS OF 15-20 KT SPREAD ACROSS THE BASIN. THE
TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE A WESTWARD TRACK ACROSS
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN UNTIL EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON WHEN IS
EXPECTED TO ENTER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

HISPANIOLA...
THE TROPICAL WAVE PREVIOUSLY OVER THE ISLAND IS NOW WEST OF
HAITI WITH AXIS CROSSING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CONVECTION FROM
THIS WAVE OVER THE ISLAND HAS REDUCED AND SCATTERED/ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONCENTRATE IN HAITI ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
FROM THE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. HOWEVER
DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IN THE REGION WILL REGENERATE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE W ATLC BUT MOVING SEWD TOWARDS THE
ISLAND WILL ENHANCE MORE SHOWERS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MAINE TO 23N SUPPORTS A
COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLC ALONG 30N69W TO 28N75W TO THE EASTERN
COAST OF CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N80W. A LINE OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION AND THUNDERSTORMS LIE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM 24N-30N BETWEEN 61W-72W. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SEWD WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS REACHING THE ATLC WATERS N OF LA
HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
ASSOCIATED TO THIS FRONT WITHIN THAT PERIOD OR EARLY MONDAY.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINING ATLC WATERS
N OF 12N ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 32N42W. FAIR WEATHER
ALSO DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A SAL OUTBREAK
EXTENDS FROM THE W COAST OF AFRICA TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN E OF
65W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
RAMOS

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