[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150550
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT JUN 15 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA... NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 23N69W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS
HISPANIOLA TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N71W MOVING W 15-20
KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS
ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-21N
BETWEEN THE MONA PASSAGE AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR 14N17W AND CONTINUES TO 9N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS
AND CONTINUES ALONG 6N28W 6N39W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA
NEAR 2N51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE
ITCZ BETWEEN 34W-36W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 27W-33W AND FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 33W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE
FROM 2N-7N BETWEEN 42W-51W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS MOST OF THE GULF E OF 94W INTO THE W ATLC
SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/0300 UTC DRAPES ACROSS THE N
GULF ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH TO NEAR 30N84W WHERE IT
BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG 29N88W CONTINUING INLAND OVER LOUISIANA
S OF NEW ORLEANS TO BEYOND 31N94W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM S OF THE FRONT IN THE
GULF WATERS. AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF
ANCHORED OVER SW MEXICO AND EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS N OVER THE
CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS S FLORIDA WITH A 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 25N87W. THIS IS
LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
TONIGHT. FRONT WILL DISSIPATE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO SE
LOUISIANA BY LATE SAT. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT NORTHWARD
SUN THROUGH TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA SUN AND REMAIN S OF 25N AS IT REACHES THE CENTRAL GULF
LATE MON AND TUE. A LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE WAVE
OVER THE SE BAY OF CAMPECHE WED.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DIPS S OVER THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO OVER HONDURAS W OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS IS
DRAWING DRY CONTINENTAL AIR S OVER THAT AREA. A LARGE UPPER HIGH
DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN ANCHORED OVER THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AND EXTENDS E INTO THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH A
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER RIDGE IS
PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM N NICARAGUA
NEAR 14N83W TO OVER CUBA NEAR 20N76W INCLUDING JAMAICA. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ACTIVITY IN THE N/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS
ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 9N76W ACROSS PANAMA
NEAR 9N80W THEN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N84W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE
FROM 13N73W 11N79W TO 13N83W. THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
USHERING IN SOME LOW LEVEL SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 16N E OF 69W. A TROPICAL
WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TONIGHT THROUGH SAT
NIGHT THEN THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN SUN AND MON REACHING THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TUE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT INTO THE W
ATLC SUN AND BUILD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC TUE AND WED.

HISPANIOLA...
THE ACTIVITY OVER HISPANIOLA IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ISLAND. THE SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF
THE TROPICAL WAVE AND WITH DAYTIME HEATING IN THE AFTERNOON
COUPLED WITH THE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT WILL RE-INTENSIFY
THUNDERSTORMS SAT EVENING. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS
THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE W MOVES E TOWARD THE ISLAND INCREASING
THE CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLC
W OF 70W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT 15/0300 UTC ENTERS THE
REGION NEAR 32N72W AND CONTINUES ALONG 29N78W OVER FLORIDA NEAR
DAYTONA BEACH AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60/75 NM SE OF THE FRONT. THE
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS N
ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO BEYOND 32N65W PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N
BETWEEN 66W-75W AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL ACTIVITY. THE TROPICAL WAVE
IS TO THE S OF THE ABOVE ACTIVITY. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE AND BENIGN UPPER FEATURES
ANCHORED BY A PAIR OF 1028 MB HIGHS LOCATED NEAR 32N41W AND
33N30W WITH A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDING S OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THIS IS KEEPING THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC TRANQUIL
TONIGHT. THE N PORTION OF A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SW ATLC TONIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS STRAITS OF FLORIDA
SUN. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE E-SE AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM 32N64W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS
SAT NIGHT THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A RIDGE FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA MON THROUGH WED.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW

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