[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N62W 14N64W
9N65W...MOVING WEST 20 KNOTS. THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL
IN THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN AND IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 23N
BETWEEN 58W AND 68W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR
THE PERIOD ENDING AT 14/0000 UTC FOR GUADELOUPE
WAS 0.21 OF AN INCH...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...MIATPTPAN.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH HONDURAS AND
NICARAGUA...ALONG 86W/87W TO THE SOUTH OF 15N...
MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 13N TO 14N
BETWEEN 82W AND 84W IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. NUMEROUS STRONG WAS IN
SOUTHERN HONDURAS AND NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA ABOUT
13/2200 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN MOVING
WESTWARD...SPREADING ACROSS EL SALVADOR.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N20W AND 8N24W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 8N24W TO 5N43W AND 6N55W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE COASTAL
AREAS OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE...AND FROM 5N TO 8N
BETWEEN 17W AND 25W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND
50W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
100W IN MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES
THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO
SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS...INTO
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG
ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 23N TO 26N BETWEEN 74W
AND 77W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N
IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 28N IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN 70W AND 85W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N43W...TO 28N56W
26N65W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
27N78W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W...TOWARD
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

MULTILAYERED CLOUD CEILINGS AND LIGHT RAIN ARE
BEING REPORTED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS.
HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS AND IN THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. VALPARAISO AND TAMPA...
IN FLORIDA...ARE REPORTING A HIGH CLOUD CEILING.
APALACHICOLA IS OBSERVING A CLOUD CEILING AT
8500 FEET. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER
THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE
FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...KHQI AND KGUL.
FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A BROAD EAST-TO-WEST MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE COVERS THE AREA. THIS WIND REGIME IS OCCURRING
TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER
OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE MAY REACH
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS.

THE MONSOON TROUGH WAS NOT ANALYZED THROUGH IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA
AND PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN
74W AND 85W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN
70W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN
74W AND 81W.

HISPANIOLA...

THE TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THIS WAVE MAY REACH
HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 48 HOURS.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA
WILL BE IN A RIDGE FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HOURS
OR MORE. AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPS DURING THE
SECOND HALF OF THE 48 HOUR TIME PERIOD FOR THE
FORECAST. THE SAME MODEL FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT
THE AREA WILL BE IN A RIDGE/AN AREA OF THE
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER FOR MOST OF THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY IS
PASSING ON TOP OF FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
EVENTUALLY REACHES HISPANIOLA AT THE END OF THE
48 HOUR TIME PERIOD. THE 250 MB PATTERN CONSISTS
OF A RIDGE. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG
31N40W TO 20N45W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N28W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1028 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N43W...TO 28N56W
26N65W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS NEAR
27N78W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1016 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N88W...TOWARD
THE LOWER TEXAS GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHT FROM
15N TO 19N TO THE WEST OF 57W. EXPECT 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 62W. EXPECT ALSO
20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM
12N TO 22N TO THE EAST OF 40W. THE 30-HOUR FORECAST
INDICATES SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS WITH A 31N72W 28N81W COLD
FRONT...TO THE NORTH OF 29N BETWEEN 65W AND 70W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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