[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 130604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W
TO THE SOUTH OF 16N...MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W IN TRADEWIND
FLOW. IT IS NOT EASY TO FIND DEEP CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION THAT IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE WAVE.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W/82W TO
THE SOUTH OF 13N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. THE WAVE CUTS ACROSS PANAMA. THE WAVE IS
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS OR LESS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM
13N TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 85W IN NORTHERN NICARAGUA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN
COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 13N17W TO 9N20W AND 8N23W.
THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N23W TO 7N27W 7N42W 7N49W
AND 8N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N
BETWEEN 10W AND 37W...FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 35W AND
45W...AND FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 53W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 19N99W IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO. A RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ANTICYCLONIC
CENTER INTO CENTRAL TEXAS.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 29N75W...ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA...TO 25N82W...AND 24N87W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN
THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO THE EAST OF 82W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W IN THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO TO 30N31W...TO
A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N43W...TO 30N50W 28N59W 26N72W...ACROSS LAKE
OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
27N87W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W.

HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON
TEXAS METROPOLITAN AREA. PENSACOLA FLORIDA IS
REPORTING A LOW CLOUD CEILING. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET
ARE REPORTED ACROSS THE AREA.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR
26N66W TO 22N67W...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 15N83W OFF THE COAST
OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN
70W AND 83W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND 84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW
COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 55W AND 66W.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM 10N85W IN COSTA RICA
BEYOND 9N90W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 6N IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN TO 10N TO THE EAST OF 87W. SCATTERED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN COLOMBIA
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT
WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 12N TO 14N
BETWEEN 72W AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS
OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM
11N TO 16N BETWEEN 72W AND 82W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS NEAR
26N66W TO 22N67W...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
PASSAGE...ACROSS JAMAICA...TO 15N83W OFF THE COAST
OF EASTERN HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND CUBA EXTENDING INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS BETWEEN
70W AND 83W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN HISPANIOLA
AND 84W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 70W.

THE GFS MODEL FOR 700 MB...500 MB...AND 250 MB
SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE AREA OF A RIDGE
THAT RUNS ROUGHLY FROM EAST TO WEST. BROAD SURFACE
CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE
FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM
AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 27N14W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...TO 29N30W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 29N30W
TO 30N39W AND 28N47W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 28N47W TO A 24N47W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 20N50W AND 15N50W. BROKEN TO
OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 16N TO 29N BETWEEN 40W
AND 54W.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES FROM
A 32N3W MOROCCO/ALGERIA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...
TO A 27N17W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N22W.
NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE INTERPRETATION.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N13W IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO TO 30N31W...TO A 1029 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N43W...TO 30N50W
28N59W 26N72W...ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN FLORIDA...
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N87W...TO THE MEXICO GULF
COAST NEAR 21N97W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHT FROM
13N TO 21N BETWEEN 40W AND 55W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT
WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM
8N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 61W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT

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