[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 120604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED JUN 12 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N46W
9N47W 3N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ IS FROM
2N NEAR THE COAST OF BRAZIL TO 11N BETWEEN
44W AND 52W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W/79W TO
THE SOUTH OF 13N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA. THE WAVE CUTS ACROSS PANAMA TOWARD THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N
TO 12N BETWEEN 76W AND 82W.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL MAURITANIA
NEAR 18N16W...TO 14N20W AND 10N24W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES
FROM 10N24W 7N30W 5N46W...AND FROM 4N50W TO 5N59W.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 2N TO 8N BETWEEN 34W AND 44W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS MEXICO FROM 22N TO 30N. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATION STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION IN MEXICO FROM 20N TO 26N. A FEW
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION ARE IN MEXICO BETWEEN GUATEMALA
AND 90W TO THE SOUTH OF 20N.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG
93W/94W. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE
GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 81W/82W FROM 22N IN CUBA
TO 27N NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ISOLATED MODERATE
RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF CUBA BETWEEN 76W IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 86W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO.

A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE 1018 MB HIGH
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N86W...TO 25N91W...
TO 20N96W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

HIGH CLOUD CEILINGS ARE REPORTED IN THE HOUSTON
TEXAS METROPOLITAN AREA...AND AT THE NAVAL AIR
STATIONS IN KINGSVILLE AND IN CORPUS CHRISTI.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN AMELIA/
LAKE PALOURD IN SOUTH CENTRAL COASTAL LOUISIANA.
A LOW CLOUD CEILING IS OBSERVED IN CRESTVIEW FLORIDA.
A HIGH CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED AT THE TAMPA
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR
LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KVBS OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA...AND AT
KDLP OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. FAIR
SKIES/CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE
REPORTED ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 25N72W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N79W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...AND ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W OVER WATER.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 77W. RAINSHOWERS
ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 16N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 82W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 73W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 12/0000 UTC...
IS 0.29 INCHES IN CURACAO.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM 7N82W IN THE EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN BEYOND 9N87W. THE NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN MAY BE MORE RELATED TO THE
78W/79W TROPICAL WAVE.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 14N BETWEEN 70W
AND 76W. EXPECT ALSO 20 KNOT WINDS OR LESS AND 9 FOOT
SEA HEIGHTS ELSEWHERE FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 71W
AND 81W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH
32N71W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 25N72W CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 13N79W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
NORTH OF 14N BETWEEN 58W AND 72W...AND ELSEWHERE TO
THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE WEST OF 70W OVER WATER.
RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALSO
TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE WEST OF 77W. RAINSHOWERS
ALSO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE NORTH
OF 16N BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND 82W.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL AND THE 500 MB GFS MODEL SHOW
THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE AREA OF A RIDGE.
A 250 MB TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST
24 HOURS OF THE TIME PERIOD. AN EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BROAD
SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES FROM
A 32N4W MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N18W...
TO 24N21W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION
BASED SOLELY ON SATELLITE INTERPRETATION.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES OVER THE MADEIRA ARCHIPELAGO
TO A 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N35W...
TO A SECOND 1027 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR
29N48W...TO 30N60W...TO 28N73W...TO THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...
FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND
9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 20N TO THE EAST OF 55W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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