[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112348
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 11N44W TO 1N46W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 42W-47W.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N76W TO 3N77W MOVING W AT 20 KT.
THE WAVE IS MOSTLY INLAND OVER COLOMBIA. THE WAVE COINCIDES WITH
A MAXIMUM IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER THAT RESIDES OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W OVER COLOMBIA...AND
FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 77W-82W OVER PANAMA.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W
TO 11N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 11N21W AND CONTINUES ALONG 5N30W
6N45W 5N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 25W-34W. ISOLATED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 35W-41W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO AROUND A 1020
MB HIGH NEAR 30N88W. THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC
WINDS ARE AROUND THE HIGH CENTER INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KT OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH...REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL
WAVE...IS ALONG 27N82W TO 24N82W. THE COMBINATION OF THE TROUGH
AND DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY ARE HELPING SUPPORT
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER THE NW GULF ASSOCIATED WITH
DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE BASIN AND
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF CENTRAL MEXICO. AN ELONGATED UPPER
TROUGH IS ALSO PUSHING SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...WHICH
MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. SURFACE RIDGING WILL REMAIN THE DOMINATE
FEATURE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN LIKELY OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND OVER FLORIDA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
MUCH OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN WATERS ARE EXPERIENCING FAIR
CONDITIONS DUE TO DRY AIR ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING
FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. HOWEVER...HEAVY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA
ASSOCIATED WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY. A TROPICAL WAVE
MOVING THROUGH THE SW CARIBBEAN IS ALSO PRODUCING A LARGE AREA
OF CONVECTION OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND PANAMA. SEE TROPICAL
WAVE SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. CONVECTION NEAR THE WAVE IS
LIKELY BEING ENHANCED BY THE UPPER TROUGH. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING MOIST DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...WHICH SUPPORTS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER HISPANIOLA. A FEW ISOLATED LOW-LEVEL
SHOWERS ARE ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE 15-20 KT TRADEWIND FLOW PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THE AREA. STRONGER WINDS UP TO 25 KT ARE NEAR THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA. MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER
THE SW CARIBBEAN AS THE WAVE TRACKS WESTWARD. THE UPPER TROUGH
NEAR THE MONA PASSAGE WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS A NEW TROUGH DIPS SOUTH OVER CUBA.

HISPANIOLA...                                           A
CLUSTER OF HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY OVER HAITI
FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 71W-73W...WHILE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DOT THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. THIS ACTIVITY IS
DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND INSTABILITY PRESENT
ON MOST AFTERNOONS...AND DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO COSTA RICA. THIS UPPER
TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH OF THE NEXT 24-28 HOURS...BUT
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE ISLAND UNTIL THEN.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE FAR WESTERN ATLC
WEST OF 76W ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED UPPER TROUGH DIPPING
SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS ALSO
TO THE EAST ALONG 73W PROVIDING DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH OF 30N BETWEEN
62W-71W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS DOMINATED BY ONE LARGE AND
BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 30N39W.
ALOFT...UPPER RIDGING IS ALONG 62W...AND 34W...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SANDWICHED BETWEEN THEM. THE UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS
A FEW HIGH CLOUDS...BUT NO NOTABLE WEATHER. THE LAST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE DAY INDICATE A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN
DUST EXTENDS OFF THE COAST OF AFRICA AND CONTINUES TO NEAR 40W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
WALTON


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