[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 111108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 11 2013

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...
CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC
OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N.
THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE
IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W TO THE
SOUTH OF 12N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE ITCZ TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N BETWEEN 38W AND 50W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W TO THE SOUTH OF 14N.
THE WAVE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN VENEZUELA...INTO
EASTERN COLOMBIA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS STRONG IN ONE CLUSTER THAT IS ON TOP OF
LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...AND
A SECOND CLUSTER IS WITHIN A 30 NM TO 60 NM RADIUS
OF 7N74W IN COLOMBIA.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W/80W BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND FLORIDA...FROM 21N AT THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF
CUBA TO 27N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED TO
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 22N
AT THE ATLANTIC OCEAN COAST OF CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN
77W AND 83W JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA-
BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 7N19W AND 6N23W. THE ITCZ
CONTINUES FROM 6N23W TO 4N30W AND 3N38W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM
6N TO 9N BETWEEN 20W AND 23W...AND FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 26W AND 34W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH
OF 10N.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 28N...WITH A CUT-OFF CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N103W IN MEXICO.

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 90W...TO 27N88W...AND INTO
SOUTHERN GEORGIA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS
THE GULF OF MEXICO.

CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IN THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...TO THE
SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF THE COAST FROM
THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER TO 20N.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N41W...TO BERMUDA...TO 30N75W...ACROSS
FLORIDA ALONG 28N/29N...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN
BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING
REPORTED IN PALACIOS AND IN VICTORIA. FAIR SKIES/
CLEAR SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING
REPORTED ELSEWHERE IN TEXAS. HIGH LEVEL CLOUD
CEILINGS ARE OBSERVED IN THE NEW ORLEANS METROPOLITAN
AREA...LOW CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN OTHER PARTS OF
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A LOW CLOUD CEILING AND
A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES WITH FOG IS BEING REPORTED
IN PASCAGOULA IN MISSISSIPPI...1 MILE VISIBILITY
AND FOG IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA.

THE VISIBILITIES FOR CRESTVIEW FLORIDA IN THE
PANHANDLE THIS MORNING FROM 0725 UTC UNTIL 0953 UTC
WERE LESS THAN ONE MILE WITH FOG. THE VISIBILITIES
HAVE BEEN IMPROVING WITH TIME. IT IS NOW AT 5 MILES
WITH FOG AND A LOW CLOUD CEILING. THE NAVAL AIR
STATION IN MILTON FLORIDA IS REPORTING A VISIBILITY
OF 0.5 MILES WITH FOG. MARIANNA FLORIDA IS REPORTING
A VISIBILITY OF ONE MILE WITH FOG. A LOW CLOUD CEILING
IS BEING OBSERVED IN PERRY FLORIDA. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE BEING REPORTED
ELSEWHERE IN FLORIDA.

FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE
TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W...

LOW CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FOLLOWING ICAO STATIONS...
KGVX OFF THE TEXAS GULF COAST...AND AT KDLP OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF LOUISIANA. SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS
ARE OBSERVED AT THE ICAO STATION KCRH. FAIR SKIES/CLEAR
SKIES AT OR LOWER THAN 12000 FEET ARE REPORTED
ELSEWHERE.

FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W TO 28N73W...TO A 25N74W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 12N80W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 73W OVER WATER. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W...COVERING
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA...
AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
81W.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW AND
MULTILAYERED MOISTURE COVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
EAST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
TO THE SOUTH OF 20N TO THE EAST OF 73W.

THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL...ACCORDING TO THE PAN
AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLE...
MIATPTPAN...FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 11/0000 UTC...
IS 0.29 INCHES IN GUADELOUPE.

THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM LAKE MARACAIBO IN
NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA...
TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN
SEA...ALONG 10N ACROSS COSTA RICA...AND BEYOND 10N86W
INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N ALONG THE
EASTERN PACIFIC COLOMBIA COAST TO PANAMA AND ITS
COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN A 15 NM TO 30 NM WIDE LINE
FROM THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...TO 11N82W...TO
13N86W IN NICARAGUA.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS
ABOUT THE NORTHEAST TO EAST 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND
8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 71W
AND 78W.

HISPANIOLA...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N71W TO 28N73W...TO A 25N74W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE WINDWARD
CHANNEL...TO 17N74W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 12N80W
IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA.
BROKEN TO OVERCAST MIDDLE LEVEL AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE
SOUTH OF 28N BETWEEN 60W AND 73W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF
13N TO THE WEST OF 73W OVER WATER. RAINSHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND IN THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN FROM 15N TO 27N BETWEEN 66W AND 74W...COVERING
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA...
AND FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND
81W.

THE 700 MB GFS MODEL SHOWS THAT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND
FLOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. A RIDGE WILL BE ACROSS
HISPANIOLA AT 500 MB. HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
SIDE/SOUTHEASTERN SIDE OF A 250 MB TROUGH FOR THE NEXT
48 HOURS OR SO. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ARE FORECAST NEAR HISPANIOLA DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURVES FROM
A 31N9W MOROCCO CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N20W...
TO 30N36W...TO 29N45W...TO A 23N52W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER...AND TO 21N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 19N TO 23N
BETWEEN 49W AND 54W.

A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N14W IN THE EASTERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
THAT IS NEAR 30N41W...TO BERMUDA...TO 30N75W...ACROSS
FLORIDA ALONG 28N/29N...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO...INTO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST.

PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE
DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOTS OR LESS WIND AND 9 FOOT SEA
HEIGHTS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 38W AND 46W.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT


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